Wednesday, October 09, 2024

Stocks Finish Higher on Milton Downshift to Cat 3, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Tech/Transport Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.5 -.13%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.65% +3.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 105.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.97%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 38.3 euros/megawatt-hour -1.5%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 14.5 +.2
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -27.3 +1.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -2.6 -.1 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(23 of 500 reporting) +16.1% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 267.09 +.02:  Growth Rate +14.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.7 +.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.68% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 366.18 +.24: Growth Rate +28.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 31.8 +.2
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .77 -1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .78 unch.
  • US Yield Curve 4.75 basis point (2s/10s) -1.0 basis point
  • US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +3.22% -1.0 basis point
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 50.8 +.9 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.58% unch.: CPI YoY +2.25% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 +3.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 77.9%(+.8 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 60.3%(-4.2 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +558 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +117 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +141 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my consumer discretionary/biotech/tech/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

No comments: