Monday, November 11, 2024

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (AZN)/1.02
  • (CAMT)/.69
  • (HTZ)/-.46
  • (HD)/3.65
  • (IAC)/-.28
  • (IGT)/.35
  • (MOS)/.52
  • (ONON)/.19
  • (RGEN)/.34
  • (SE)/.46
  • (THS)/.75
  • (TSN)/.72
After the Close: 
  • (DOX)/1.70
  • (CAVA)/.11
  • (CHGG)/.07
  • (CART)/.22
  • (LNW)/1.08
  • (OXY)/.74
  • (SWKS)/1.52
  • (SPOT)/1.69
  • (MODG)/-.17
Economic Releases
6:00 am EST
  • The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for Oct. is estimated to rise to 92.0 versus 91.5 in Sept.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Kashkari speaking, Fed's Barkin speaking, Fed's Weller speaking, Fed's Harker speaking, Loan Officer Survey, weekly US retail sales reports, NY Fed 1Y Consumer Inflation Expectations Index for Oct., OPEC monthly report, BofA Consumer/Retail Conference, UBS Healthcare Conference, Baird Industrial Conference and the Guggenheim Healthcare Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +27.0% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.8 +2.3
  • 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
  • 57.8% of Issues Advancing, 40.4% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .82 -49.4%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$272.2M
  • 409 New 52-Week Highs, 28 New Lows
  • 64.0% (+.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 67.0 +2.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 68.0 -.3%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 245.4 n/a
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 20,223.9 -.89%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 68.0 (GREED) +7.0
  • 1-Day Vix 9.2 -2.7%
  • Vix 15.1 +1.1%
  • Total Put/Call .74 -9.8%

Sunday, November 10, 2024

Monday Watch

Around X:
  • @RealDonaldTrump
  • @elonmusk
  • @bennyjohnson
  • I just spoke to a prominent Republican Senator about the leadership race. Stunning admissions: “Thune and Cornyn have been trained like dogs by McConnell. They’ll do as they’re told and come when called. McConnell will still be in charge with them. Scott is the only option.”
  • EXCLUSIVE: A GOP Senate Source has leaked the internal whip-count for the Leadership Vote. The final votes will be on a secret ballot Wednesday. Here is where the race stands now… Cornyn (18) Scott (11) Thune (24). Banks - Thune, Barrasso - Thune, Blackburn - Thune, Boozman - Cornyn, Britt - Cornyn, Budd - Cornyn, Capito - Cornyn, Cassidy - Thune, Collins - Thune, Cornyn - Cornyn, Cotton - Thune, Cramer - Thune, Crapo - Cornyn, Cruz - Thune, Curtis - Thune, Daines - Thune, Ernst - Cornyn, Fischer - Cornyn, Graham - Cornyn, Grassley - Cornyn, Hagerty - Scott, Hawley - Cornyn, Hoeven - Thune, Hyde-Smith - Cornyn, Johnson - Scott, Justice - Thune, Kennedy - Cornyn, Lankford - Cornyn, Lee - Scott, Lummis - Thune, Marshall - Scott, McConnell - Thune, McCormick - Cornyn, Moran - Cornyn, Moreno - Scott, Mullin - Thune, Murkowski - Thune, Paul - Scott, Ricketts - Cornyn, Risch - Cornyn, Rounds - Thune, Rubio - Scott, Schmitt - Scott, Scott (FL) - Scott, Scott (SC) - Thune, Sheehy - Thune, Sullivan - Thune, Tillis - Thune, Thune - Cornyn, Tuberville - Scott, Vance - Scott, Wicker - Thune, Young - Thune.
  • @gentrywgevers
  • @AtlRey
  • Here’s a quick recap of what just happened in AZ in case you missed it: - Trump won Arizona by 6 points. - Gallego had 127k more votes than there are registered Democrats in AZ. - Lake had 200k fewer votes than there are registered Republicans in AZ. - Gallego received more votes than Kamala Harris did in AZ. - Lake received 140k fewer votes than Trump did in AZ. - Uncounted ballots increased days after the deadline. -Mitch McConnell withheld campaign funds from Lake. - No GOP members are speaking out about these discrepancies. Overall, something about this election between Lake and Gallego doesn’t add up.
  • @annvandersteel
  • @MarioNawful
  • @magnelibra
  • @TomFitton
  • I just checked. There are still over 435,000 ballots uncounted as of last night, including 230,000 in Maricopa County. Inexcusable election corruption. (video)
  • @Laralogan
  • Just for added measure, #Arizona had a total of 463K voters without a "gender", of which 351K returned ballots. Maricopa had 292K of which 200K returned a ballot. Pima had 60K or which 108K returned a ballot. That's right, 178% return rate. This is obviously fraud. Time for it to end. C’mon - it is right in our faces. The steal is not credible at all. (pic)
  • @JoeyMannarinoUS
  • @LauraLoomer
  • @CollinRugg
  • @merissahansen17
  • Rach_IC
  • @TheWuhanClan
  • @maddenifico
  • DerrickEvans4WV 
  • One of two things has happened in Arizona. Roughly 150k people voted for Trump but then decided to vote for a left wing extremist (Gallego) for US Senate. Or THEY ARE CHEATING. Which do you think it is?
  • @rising_serpent
  • RobertBeadles
  • CuriousityFirst
  • @CharlieKirk11
  • @RobertBeadles
  • WHERE DID THEY GO? Where did 26,902 votes go??? This is from our friends in Clark County, Nevada. Tell me again how many votes @CaptainSamBrown and others lost “buy”. We must have a hand recount of all ballots and signature verification of all ballot envelopes. This is ridiculous, and the fact that nobody is standing up to this speaks volumes about our ‘leadership.’ Nevada, where are you at?! Peacefully demand that the county commissioners immediately require a hand recount of all ballots, VVPAT rolls, and signature verification of every ballot envelope by a third party with citizen oversight. We can no longer trust without verifying. If they’re not making mistakes in our elections—or worse, cheating—what the hell do they have to fear? Be peaceful, be heard! (pic)
  • @toobaffled
  • @AmyKremer
  • @ShadowofEzra
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • If you’re a whistleblower, state official, or someone who works for a company conducting immoral and/or illegal activity, or has DEI/ discriminatory hiring/teaching practices… and you want to stay anonymous.. DM me… I will expose them
  • Trumps Plan to Impose TERM LIMITS on Members of Congress — Separate IG Offices from the Departments they Oversee — and Establish a ‘Truth and Reconciliation Commission’ for Public DECLAS. (video)
  • @MarkLevioneNYC
  • @ThePatriotOasis
  • @kylenabecker
  • @thehealthb0t
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @BillAckman
  • How is it possible that the @KamalaHarris campaign spent $583 million, nearly $6 million per day, on her campaign staff in her 103-day campaign while
    @realDonaldTrump’s spending on staff was $10.4 million or $100,970 per day, 1/60th as much (assuming the same 103-day period which should be a highly conservative assumption as the Trump campaign began many months before the Harris campaign). The numbers don’t compute. This smells like fraud and/or corruption.
  • @matt_vanswol
  • @Liz_churchill10
  • @HustleBitch_
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -1.0% to unch. on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 69.5 +.5 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 62.5 +.5 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 101.4 USD/Metric Tonne -1.2%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.0 unch.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 68.0 -.33%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.6 -1.0%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.37%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.17%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.22%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by real estate and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Saturday, November 09, 2024

Today's Headlines

Around X:

  • @elonmusk
  • glennbeck
  • @DerrickEvans4WV
  • @LaraLogan
  • @ThePatriotOasis
  • @plzbepatient
  • TonySeruga
  • JamesBradleyCA
  • @realMikeLindell
  • BehizyTweets
  • @CharlieKirk11
  • @CortesSteve
  • @Liz_Churhill
  • @Scottpresler
  • @DC_Draino
  • @MTGrepp
  • @NancyGo212432376
  • @duncan_colton
  • @WallStSilver
  • @BGatesIsAPsycho
  • @realLizUSA
  • @MJTructhUltra
  • @JohnBasham
  • @TaraBull808
  • @AmyKremer
  • @RogerJStoneJr
  • @VigilantFox
  • @matt_vanswol
  • @LeadingReport
  • @sarahcstock  
  • @IGSquawk 

Friday, November 08, 2024

Evening Headlines

Around X:

  • @elonmusk
  • @WallStreetSilv
  • @NationalFile
  • @Liz_Wheeler
  • Trump is President-elect for two days: - Stock market hits record high - Migrant caravan at our border dissolves - Hamas calls for end to war - Bitcoin hits record high - Putin ready to end Ukraine war - Qatar kicks out Hamas leaders - EU will buy U.S. gas not Russian gas - Putin will sell oil in U.S. dollars - Zelenskyy phones Trump & Elon - NYC Mayor ends vouchers for illegals - Mexico to stop migrants at U.S. border - China wants to work peacefully with us - Big U.S. company to move out of China I repeat: Trump has been President-elect for two days.
  • @charliekirk11
  • @LaraLogan
  • @CollinRugg
  • @bennyjohnson
  • @EvavAKilgore
  • @merissafamilton
  • @ChuckCallesto
  • @Wolrdsource24
  • @BehizyTweets
  • @hodgetwins
  • @newstart_2024
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @SethDillon
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • Baltimore DEI Mayor Brandon Scott Reacts to Donald Trump Winning • Black People Voted Against their own best Interests • Most of Americans are Racist • Black Women like Kamala Harris (She’s not Black) are the most Disrespected in the World • Trumps “dark promises” will make It difficult for Baltimore. (video)
  • @TonySeruga
  • @LibertyLockPod

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Global Inflows, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Lower Long-Term Rates, Utility/Defense Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.05 -.6%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.53% unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 101.3 USD/Metric Tonne -1.2%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 42.4 euros/megawatt-hour +2.7%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 37.2 +1.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 16.7 +.2 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.7 -.2 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(453 of 500 reporting) +7.1% -.7 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 268.02 -.54:  Growth Rate +16.6% +1.6 percentage points, P/E 22.4 +.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.53% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +25.7% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 376.54 +.09: Growth Rate +37.3% +5.1 percentage points, P/E 32.9 -.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .85 -14.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.56 +27.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 4.5 basis point (2s/10s) -7.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.45% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 35.5% +1.6 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +2.56% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37 +1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th FOMC meeting: 54.1%(+2.0 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 19th meeting: 41.3%(-2.8 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.5-4.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -310 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -305 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +95 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my financial/consumer discretionary/industrial/utility sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long