Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (BKE)/.89

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

9:45 am EST

• The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for Nov. is estimated to rise to 48.9 versus 48.5 in Oct.
• The S&P Global US Services PMI for Nov. is estimated at 55.0 versus 55.0 in Oct.
• The S&P Global US Composite PMI for Nov. is estimated to rise to 54.3 versus 54.1 in Oct.
  

10:00 am EST

•  Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment readings for Nov.
  

11:00 am EST

• Kansas City Fed Services Activity for Nov.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bowman speaking, Bloomberg Nov. US Economic Survey, US Baker Hughes rig count, CFTC weekly speculative net positioning reports, (AVT) annual meeting and the (DCI) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +15.1% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.9 -.8
  
• 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
• 78.2% of Issues Advancing, 20.3% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .94 +36.2%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$303.5M
  
• 226 New 52-Week Highs, 49 New Lows
• 59.3% (+3.0%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 63.0 +11.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 66.7 +1.4%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 242.8 -.46%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 20,059.6 -.95%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 59.0 (GREED) +11.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 12.4 -35.3%
  
• Vix 17.1 -.6%
  
• Total Put/Call .76 -6.2%

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 73.75 unch.

• China Sovereign CDS 63.25 -.5 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 102.0 USD/Metric Tonne +1.0%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.7 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 66.3 +.9%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.2 +1.2%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.11%

• S&P 500 futures -.33%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.49%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Modestly Lower into Final Hour on Escalating Russia/Ukraine Tensions, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Higher Long-Term Rates, Retail/Tech Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.7 -.2%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.53% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 101.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 46.8 euros/megawatt-hour +2.5%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 40.6 -1.5 points
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 13.9 -.2 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.6 -.3 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(470 of 500 reporting) +6.6% -.1 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 269.19 +.17:  Growth Rate +15.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.9 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.59% -1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +25.7% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 379.58 +.58: Growth Rate +33.3% +.2 percentage point, P/E 32.6 +.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.04 unch.
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .99 -47.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve 10.0 basis point (2s/10s) -.25 basis point
  
• US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.58% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 33.3% -1.4 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.76% unch.: CPI YoY +2.70% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 +1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th FOMC meeting: 50.9%(-3.1 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 19th meeting: 41.5%(-1.6 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.5-4.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -185 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -40 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +90 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my utility sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.9%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Computer Hardware -2.1% 2) Semis -1.7% 3) Retail -1.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ILMN, DASH, CRMD, GLPG, AU, APO, AI, SBLK, QDEL, ZTO, GDS, MPWR, AOSL, TMDX, ROKU, NTLA, ELF, FN, BYRN, DY, NAMS, POWL and TGT
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) IBIT 2) TGT 3) WSM 4) ELF 5) PSEC
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) TGT 2) SMCI 3) FOA 4) EYEN5) DY
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) XBI 3) SMH 4) KWEB 5) IBB

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +.1%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Video Gaming +1.3% 2) Steel +1.2% 3) Computer Services +1.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• WSM, LMND, MARA, SMLR, DLB, WIX, MSTR, AAOI, GLBE, BRKR, U, ZETA, ESTA, LEU, QFIN, ALHC, BLFS, LNTH, AZTA, FLEX, TNDM, KEYS, MEG, WBTN, WBTN, CSGP, ZI, VREX, BERY, PX, EQT, ROOT, FND, BROS, AZEK, CORZ, AVPT, LEGN, X, KT, TEM, AMCR, GME, ARVN, SEDG, TECH and BTGR
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) IBIT 2) MSTZ 3) MET 4) WSM 5) TGT

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) KC 2) WSM 3) WIX 4) DLB 5) HUM
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLP 2) XLY 3) IGV 4) SOXX 5) XLB
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume