Monday, December 02, 2024

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +23.3% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.0 -.4
  • 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
  • 43.7% of Issues Advancing, 54.0% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.34 -19.8%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$82.6M
  • 98 New 52-Week Highs, 31 New Lows
  • 63.6% (+.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 65.0 -3.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 64.8 +3.5%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 245.3 +1.0%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 20,257.3 +1.6%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 67.0 (GREED) +1.0
  • 1-Day Vix 6.5 -24.9%
  • Vix 13.5 -.4%
  • Total Put/Call .80 -9.1%

Sunday, December 01, 2024

Monday Watch

Night Trading

  • Asian indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.75 -.5 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 64.5 -.25 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 104.3 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.4 -.1%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 65.3 +4.3%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.0 -.2%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.56%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.12%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.19%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Tuesday, November 26, 2024

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

  • Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 73.75 unch.
  • China Sovereign CDS 63.5 +.25 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 102.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.5 -.03%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 66.0 +.3%
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.3 +.5%
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.13%
  • S&P 500 futures +.05%
  • NASDAQ 100 futures unch.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Seasonality, Pharma/Utility Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.5 -.3%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.50% -3.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 102.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 47.2 euros/megawatt-hour -1.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 30.0 -6.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -22.8 -.7 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 1.3 +.4 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(481 of 500 reporting) +8.2% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 269.96 +.07:  Growth Rate +13.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.3 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.59% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +33.3% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 382.04 +.17: Growth Rate +34.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.7 +.4 point
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .81 unch.
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.28 +54.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 4.75 basis point (2s/10s) +5.5 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.58% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 35.3% +3.3 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.76% unch.: CPI YoY +2.70% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.29 -1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th FOMC meeting: 57.5%(+6.4 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 19th meeting: 43.3%(+.9 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.5-4.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -77 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -33 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +72 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my tech/utility/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (FRO)/.36
  • (PDCO)/.49
After the Close: 
  • None of note
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • 3Q GDP updates. 
  • The Advance Goods Trade Deficit for Oct. is estimated at -$102.6B versus -$108.2B in Sept.
  • Wholesale Inventories MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a -.2% decline in Sept.
  • Retail Inventories MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.8% gain in Sept.
  • Durable Goods Orders for Oct. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a -.7% decline in Sept.
  • Durables Ex Transports for Oct. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.5% gain in Sept.
  • Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex Air for Oct. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.7% gain in Sept.
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 215K versus 213K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims is estimated to fall to 1893K versus 1908K prior.

9:45 am EST

  • MNI Chicago PMI for Nov. is estimated to rise to 45.0 versus 41.6 in Oct.

10:00 am EST

  • Personal Income for Oct. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.3% gain in Sept.
  • Personal Spending for Oct. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.5% gain in Sept.
  • The Core PCE Price Index MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.3% gain in Sept.
  • Pending Home Sales MoM for Oct. is estimated to fall -2.0% versus a +7.4% gain in Sept.

10:30 am EST

  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -521,670 barrels versus a +545,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies is estimated to fall by -390,000 barrels versus a +2,054,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -46,670 barrels versus a -114,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.08% versus a -1.2% decline prior.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The 7Y T-Note auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, weekly US Baker Hughes Rig Count and the (SEE) annual meeting  could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Monday, November 25, 2024

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

  • @WallStreetApes
  • @TheChiefNerd
  • @BillAckman
  • The FDA safe limit of Aluminum is 25mcg BUT, babies get 250mcg on the first day of life with the Hepatitis B vaccine alone. Remember, ingested and injected are 2 different biological processes. Does Injecting 10 times the amount of Aluminum deemed safe into a day old infant seem logical and safe to you? Does anyone dispute these assertions?
  • @SovMichael
  • @DC_Draino
  • Elon is on a rampage to take out Senate RINOs. Good. We finally have an extremely wealthy political billionaire fighting for the MAGA team. Combine that with our MAGA social media ecosystem filled with influencers and podcasts with hundreds of millions of followers and we now have political nuclear warhead arsenal. RINOs have been warned!
  • @matt_vanswol
  • @RealHickory
  • @WesternLensman
  • @LeadingReport
  • @MarioNawful
  • @DC_Draino
  • @PamBondiAG
  • @bonchieredstate
  • @sheislaurenlee
  • @Libsoftiktok
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -1.0% to unch. on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 73.75 +.5 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 63.25 +.5 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 102.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.05%
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.5 -.22%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 65.4 +.02%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.8 +2.3%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -1.2%
  • S&P 500 futures -.47%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.55%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.