Wednesday, December 04, 2024

Thursday Watch

Around X:
  • @elonmusk
  • The only time anyone should watch the news is to study how psychological manipulation works on the general public. True.
  • Didn’t every single long vote count go towards the Democrats? At least one of which had ballots disappear? Must be a coincidence.
  • @TonySeruga
  • The use of a suppressor was a red flag, and all the amateur sleuths theorizing the shooter was a novice and that very well might be, but it’s interesting the shooter went to manual cycling of the pistol immediately, with zero hesitation. I believe he knew this was going to happen beforehand. A novice would have probably panicked. But why use this set up in the first place? And the "tomahawk" presentation of the pistol, was this intentional, maybe a pro trying to appear to be a novice? (video)
  • @MarioNawful
  • GENDER-AFFIRMING CARE FOR MINORS SURGES BY 150% YOY. The database by "Do No Harm" revealed a 150% year-over-year increase in gender-affirming surgeries for minors, with 5,700 operations performed between 2019-2023. Over 13,994 minors received treatment, including 8,579 on puberty blockers or hormone therapy, costing $119M in total. California leads with $28M spent and 1,359 surgeries.
  • @LauraLoomer
  • @HealthRanger
  • @OcrazioCornPop
  • @bennyjohnson
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
  • @TheChiefNerd
  • @WarClandestine
  • @JesseKellyDC
  • @stillgray
  • @amuse
  • @nicksortor
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @TheTranscript
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 70.75 -1.25 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 62.5 -1.0 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 105.3 USD/Metric Tonne -.09%
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.4 +.01%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 66.2 +.5%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.1 +.3%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.16%
  • S&P 500 futures -.05%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.10%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by consumer and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Fed Rate-Cut Hopes, Lower Long-Term Rates, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.4 +.1%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.45% +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 105.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 47.0 euros/megawatt-hour -3.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 27.7 -8.9 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -23.4 +1.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.2 -1.1 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(489 of 500 reporting) +8.2% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 270.38 +.04:  Growth Rate +13.3% unch., P/E 22.5 +.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.58% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +33.3% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 383.56 +.03: Growth Rate +22.4% unch., P/E 33.7 +.9
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .90 +3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.38 +19.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 5.75 basis points (2s/10s) +1.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +3.16% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 33.5% -1.2 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.94% unch.: CPI YoY +2.70% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 unch.
  • Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th FOMC meeting: 62.4%(+1.2 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 19th meeting: 48.6%(+4.6 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.5-4.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +360 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -105 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +32 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Value -.2%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Homebuilding -3.0% 2) Oil Service -2.6% 3) Energy -2.6%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • CRDO, GPRK, LYB, THO, VCTR, TGS, DAVE, CRGY, CERT, FRO, OPRA, LOMA, NAMS, MCHP, CHWY, CPB, MKTX, BOX, FLNC, LUNR, FL, TOST, MP, FOUR, GXO, ZJK and BASE
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) KR 2) S 3) FL 4) NOK 5) YOU
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) FL 2) THO 3) WOLF 4) LUNR 5) AILE
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLF 2) PKB 3) XLY 4) PSI 5) XLU

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth +1.2%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Computer Hardware +2.6% 2) Internet +2.4% 3) Software +2.4%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • CCRN, MRVL, PSTG, GRPN, DAKT, ALT, INOD, STOK, SFHG, PRO, JANX, APGE, INOD, ROKU, METC, BTDR, NBIS, ZETA, RNG, CRM, ACIC, MXL, U, IREN, FTRE, AOSL, SSYS, MAT, PRTA, PSN, DDOG, WBTN, PATH, NOW, TEAM, LITE, SDA, DNA, NATL, HUBS, AAOI, MDB, WDAY, GEO, ZS, SPT, OKTA, NET, CMG, SMWB, SNOW, CART, S, CFLT, GTLB, CRWD, BMRN, TDG, VEEV, ALRM, SPT, MNDY, PYPL, ASAN, FVRR, AES, BILL, DT, SQ, GRAL, NTAP, PCOR, HAS, RPD and NU
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) YOU 2) PSTG 3) KTOS 4) OKTA 5) MRVL
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) MRVL 2) CRM 3) ROKU 4) MDB 5) OKTA
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) IGV 2) VGT 3) EIPI 4) XLP 5) COPX
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (CRMT)/-.10
  • (BMO)/1.71
  • (BF/B)/.49
  • (CM)/1.28
  • (DG)/.94
  • (FKY)/1.21
  • (KR)/.97
  • (PDCO)/.49
  • (SIG)/.32
  • (TD)/1.30
After the Close: 
  • (AGX)/1.26
  • (COO)/1.00
  • (DOCU)/.87
  • (GWRE)/.30
  • (HPE)/.56
  • (LULU)/2.71
  • (WOOF)/-.04
  • (SWBI)/.17
  • (ULTA)/4.53
  • (VSCO)/-.62
  • (ZUMZ)/.02 
  • (ZUO)/.12
Economic Releases
7:30 am EST
  • Challenger Job Cuts YoY for Nov.

8:30 am EST

  • The Trade Deficit for Oct. is estimated at -$75.0B versus -$84.4B in Sept.
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 215K versus 213K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims is estimated to fall to 1904K versus 1907K prior.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Barkin speaking, OPEC meeting, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (TSCO) investor day, (UI) annual meeting, UBS Industrials/Transports Conference and the Goldman Sachs Industrials/Materials Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +3.9% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 16.5 +4.4
  • 6 Sectors Declining, 5 Sectors Rising
  • 48.3% of Issues Advancing, 49.3% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.30 +19.3%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$154.2M
  • 128 New 52-Week Highs, 31 New Lows
  • 63.1% (-.4%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 64.0 -2.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 65.9 -.5%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 246.5 +.12%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 20,365.6 +1.4%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 57.0 (GREED) -4.0
  • 1-Day Vix 7.3 -12.5%
  • Vix 13.3 unch.
  • Total Put/Call .83 +1.2%