Wednesday, December 04, 2024

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Fed Rate-Cut Hopes, Lower Long-Term Rates, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.4 +.1%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.45% +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 105.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 47.0 euros/megawatt-hour -3.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 27.7 -8.9 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -23.4 +1.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.2 -1.1 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(489 of 500 reporting) +8.2% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 270.38 +.04:  Growth Rate +13.3% unch., P/E 22.5 +.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.58% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +33.3% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 383.56 +.03: Growth Rate +22.4% unch., P/E 33.7 +.9
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .90 +3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.38 +19.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 5.75 basis points (2s/10s) +1.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +3.16% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 33.5% -1.2 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.94% unch.: CPI YoY +2.70% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 unch.
  • Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th FOMC meeting: 62.4%(+1.2 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 19th meeting: 48.6%(+4.6 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.5-4.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +360 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -105 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +32 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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