Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.1 +.05%
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.33% -1.0 basis point
- China Iron Ore Spot 101.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.7%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 43.1 euros/megawatt-hour +5.1%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 12.8 +3.3 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -7.1 +1.6 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -2.4 +.2 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) +26.3% +18.4 percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 271.36 +.08: Growth Rate +13.7% unch., P/E 21.8 -.6
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.55% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 386.54 +.18: Growth Rate +23.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 34.3 -1.0
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .30 -49.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.02 +5.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 25.25 basis points (2s/10s) +12.25 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +3.16% -17.0 basis points
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 24.2% -4.1 percentage points
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.97% unch.: CPI YoY +2.86% unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 -1.0 basis point
- Highest target rate probability for March 19th FOMC meeting: 53.0% (-4.5 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for May 7th meeting: 45.3%(+3.2 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +350 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -30 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +1 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Lower: On losses in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 25% Net Long
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