Friday, December 20, 2024

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on More Dovish Fed Commentary, Lower Long-Term Rates, Dollar Weakness, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.2 +.2%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.32% -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 100.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 44.1 euros/megawatt-hour +2.4%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 10.2 -2.6 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -5.9 +1.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -2.4 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(19 of 500 reporting) +21.2% -5.1 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 270.85 -.51:  Growth Rate +13.5% -.2 percentage point, P/E 22.0 +.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.55% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 386.68 +.14: Growth Rate +23.3% unch., P/E 34.7 +.4
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .38 +8.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.17 +15.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 20.5 basis points (2s/10s) -4.75 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +3.08% -8.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 24.2% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% -10.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.86% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 -1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for March 19th FOMC meeting: 48.3% (+3.3 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for May 7th meeting: 48.2%(+2.0 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +485 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +37 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +243 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/financial/consumer discretionary/utility sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 755% Net Long

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