Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.6 +.56%
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.44% -1.0 basis point
- China Iron Ore Spot 105.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 46.6 euros/megawatt-hour -1.0%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 25.3 -2.4 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -23.7 -.3 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.2 unch.
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(492 of 500 reporting) +8.2% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 270.44 +.06: Growth Rate +13.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.5 unch.
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.58% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +33.3% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 383.73 +.17: Growth Rate +22.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.9 +.2
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .89 -1.0 basis point
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.39 +1.0 basis point
- US Yield Curve 2.5 basis points (2s/10s) -3.25 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +3.29% +13.0 basis points
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 34.9% +1.4 percentage points
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.94% unch.: CPI YoY +2.70% unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.28 -2.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th FOMC meeting: 58.9%(-4.8 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 19th meeting: 43.9%(-5.8 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.5-4.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +45 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -27 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +30 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my financial/consumer discretionary/utility sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
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