Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.79 -.53%
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.28% unch.
- China Iron Ore Spot 101.1 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 47.6 euros/megawatt-hour -.2%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -1.6 -4.8 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -10.2 -4.8 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.3 +.2 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(19 of 500 reporting) +21.2% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 271.92 +.26: Growth Rate +13.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.8 -.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.57% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 392.70 +.10: Growth Rate +25.2% unch., P/E 33.9 -1.0
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .78 -4.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.65 -33.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 29.0 basis points (2s/10s) -.25 basis point
- US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +3.09% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 22.7% +.8 percentage point
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.86% unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.32 -3.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for March 19th FOMC meeting: 48.4% (+3.1 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for May 7th meeting: 47.9%(+1.6 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -194 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -42 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +135 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
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