Monday, December 30, 2024

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on US Debt-Related Concerns, Year-End Profit-Taking, Technical Selling, Consumer Discretionary/Tech Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.79 -.53%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.28% unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 101.1 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 47.6 euros/megawatt-hour -.2%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -1.6 -4.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -10.2 -4.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.3 +.2 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(19 of 500 reporting) +21.2% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 271.92 +.26:  Growth Rate +13.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.8 -.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.57% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 392.70 +.10: Growth Rate +25.2% unch., P/E 33.9 -1.0
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .78 -4.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.65 -33.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 29.0 basis points (2s/10s) -.25 basis point
  • US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +3.09% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 22.7% +.8 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.86% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.32 -3.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for March 19th FOMC meeting: 48.4% (+3.1 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for May 7th meeting: 47.9%(+1.6 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -194 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -42 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +135 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower:  On losses in my tech/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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