Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.4 unch.
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.33% +1.0 basis point
- China Iron Ore Spot 105.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.04%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 40.3 euros/megawatt-hour -2.3%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 16.10 -3.1 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -11.7 -11.3 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.8 -2.6 points
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(4 of 500 reporting) +9.7% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 271.28 +.32: Growth Rate +13.7% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.4 +.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.56% +1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 386.03 +1.16: Growth Rate +23.1% +.3 percentage point, P/E 35.5 +.8
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .90 +2.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .98 -15.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 14.75 basis points (2s/10s) -1.0 basis point
- US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +3.33% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 26.9% -.7 percentage point
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.97% unch.: CPI YoY +2.86% unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 -2.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th FOMC meeting: 79.9%(+1.6 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 19th meeting: 50.6%(-1.4 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.5-4.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +332 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -59 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +62 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/financial/consumer discretionary sector longs and emerging market shorts
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
No comments:
Post a Comment