Tuesday, December 31, 2024

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Higher Long-Term Rates, Year-End Profit-Taking, Technical Selling, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.7 -.32%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.31% +3.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 101.3 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 48.9 euros/megawatt-hour +2.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -1.7 -.1 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -12.1 -1.9 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -2.2 -2.1 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(19 of 500 reporting) +21.2% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 271.99 +.07:  Growth Rate +14.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.7 -.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.57% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 392.92 +.22: Growth Rate +25.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.7 -.2
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .56 -22.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.53 -12.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 32.5 basis points (2s/10s) +3.5 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +3.09% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 25.4% +2.7 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.86% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 +2.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for March 19th FOMC meeting: 48.4% (+1.5 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for May 7th meeting: 47.9%(+.8 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -474 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -53 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +133 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my consumer discretionary sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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