Tuesday, December 24, 2024

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Seasonal Strength, Short-Covering, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.1 +.1%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.33% +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 100.8 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 46.2 euros/megawatt-hour +1.4%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 3.8 -1.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -2.8 -.6 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.2 -.1 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(19 of 500 reporting) +21.2% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 271.43 +.43:  Growth Rate +13.7% +.2 percentage point, P/E 22.0 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.57% +2.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 392.15 +5.13: Growth Rate +25.1% +1.7 percentage points, P/E 34.4 -.4
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .73 +12.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.56 +16.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 26.0 basis points (2s/10s) +1.25 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +3.09% +1.0 basis point
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 22.4% -1.3 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.86% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 +2.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for March 19th FOMC meeting: 53.0% (-3.2 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for May 7th meeting: 45.3%(+1.4 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +260 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -2 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +162 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/financial/utility/consumer discretionary sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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