Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.4 -.1%
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.33% -3.0 basis points
- China Iron Ore Spot 104.7 USD/Metric Tonne -1.3%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 42.8 euros/megawatt-hour -4.2%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 20.1 -5.6 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -25.2 +.7 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.7 -.6
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(3 of 500 reporting) +8.9% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 270.91 +.07: Growth Rate +13.5% unch., P/E 22.4 -.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.57% -1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 384.72 -.14: Growth Rate +22.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 34.6 -.1
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .92 +6.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.06 -36.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 13.75 basis points (2s/10s) +3.0 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +3.33% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 30.0% -1.6 percentage points
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.97% unch.: CPI YoY +2.86% unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 +3.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th FOMC meeting: 73.7%(-3.5 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 19th meeting: 52.1%(-3.7 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.5-4.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -29 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -148 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +10 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Lower: On losses in my financial/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 75% Net Long
No comments:
Post a Comment