Thursday, December 12, 2024

Stocks Modestly Lower into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Dollar Strength, Technical Selling, Commodity/Healthcare Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.4 -.1%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.33% -3.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 104.7 USD/Metric Tonne -1.3%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 42.8 euros/megawatt-hour -4.2%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 20.1 -5.6 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -25.2 +.7 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.7 -.6
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(3 of 500 reporting) +8.9% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 270.91 +.07:  Growth Rate +13.5% unch., P/E 22.4 -.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.57% -1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 384.72 -.14: Growth Rate +22.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 34.6 -.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .92 +6.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.06 -36.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 13.75 basis points (2s/10s) +3.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +3.33% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 30.0% -1.6 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.97% unch.: CPI YoY +2.86% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 +3.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th FOMC meeting: 73.7%(-3.5 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 19th meeting: 52.1%(-3.7 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.5-4.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -29 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -148 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +10 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower:  On losses in my financial/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

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