Monday, December 09, 2024

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Mid-East Regional War Fears, Sector Rotation, Profit-Taking, Construction/Gambling Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.6 +.12%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.40% -4.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 106.4 USD/Metric Tonne +1.0%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 44.9 euros/megawatt-hour -3.5%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 23.2 -2.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -27.0 -3.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.8 -.6
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(496 of 500 reporting) +8.2% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 270.73 +.29:  Growth Rate +13.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.4 -.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.58% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +33.3% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 384.32 +.78: Growth Rate +22.7% +.2 percentage point, P/E 33.9 unch.
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .90 +1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.51 +12.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 6.75 basis points (2s/10s) +4.25 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +3.33% +4.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 33.9% -1.0 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.94% unch.: CPI YoY +2.70% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.27 -1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th FOMC meeting: 67.5%(-4.6 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 19th meeting: 52.9%(+2.0 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.5-4.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +325 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +760 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +23 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Lower:  On losses in my financial/tech/utility/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

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