Monday, December 23, 2024

Stocks Reversing Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Seasonal Strength, Technical Buying, Tech/Healthcare Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.1 -.2%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.32% unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 100.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.9%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 45.5 euros/megawatt-hour +3.2%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 5.1 -5.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -2.2 +3.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.1 -.7 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(19 of 500 reporting) +21.2% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 271.0 +.15:  Growth Rate +13.5% unch., P/E 22.0 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.55% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 387.02 +.34: Growth Rate +23.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 34.8 +.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .61 +23.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.40 +23.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 24.75 basis points (2s/10s) +4.25 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +3.08% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 23.7% -.5 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.86% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 +3.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for March 19th FOMC meeting: 54.9% (+7.3 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for May 7th meeting: 46.1%(+2.0 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +134 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +32 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +215 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/financial/utility sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

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