Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.3 -.20%
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.31% -2.0 basis points
- China Iron Ore Spot 103.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.6%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 42.1 euros/megawatt-hour +4.4%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 9.0 -7.1 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -9.9 -1.8 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -2.9 +1.1 points
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(4 of 500 reporting) +9.7% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 271.24 -.04: Growth Rate +13.6% -.1 percentage point, P/E 22.3 -.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.55% -1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 386.10 +.07: Growth Rate +23.1% unch., P/E 35.4 -.1
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .87 -3.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .97 -1.0 basis point
- US Yield Curve 14.5 basis points (2s/10s) -.25 basis point
- US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +3.33% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 26.5% -.4 percentage point
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.97% unch.: CPI YoY +2.86% unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 -2.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th FOMC meeting: 79.9%(-3.9 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 19th meeting: 49.4%(-2.6 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.5-4.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +51 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +40 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +12 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Lower: On losses in my tech/industrial/financial/consumer discretionary/utility sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
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