Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.0 -.4%
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.28% -5.0 basis points
- China Iron Ore Spot 100.0 USD/Metric Tonne +1.2%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 47.7 euros/megawatt-hour +4.4%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 3.2 -.7 point
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -5.4 -1.1 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.5 -1.1 points
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(19 of 500 reporting) +21.2% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 271.66 +.08: Growth Rate +13.8% unch., P/E 21.9 -.4
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.57% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 392.60 +.16: Growth Rate +25.2% unch., P/E 33.9 -1.0
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .82 -3.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.92 -74.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 29.25 basis points (2s/10s) +5.0 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +3.09% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 21.9% -.3 percentage point
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.86% unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 -1.0 basis point
- Highest target rate probability for March 19th FOMC meeting: 50.0% (-1.8 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for May 7th meeting: 46.2%(+1.1 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -19 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -12 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +130 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Lower: On losses in my tech/industrial/financial/consumer discretionary/utility sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
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