Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on US-Global Trade Deal Hopes, Plunging Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Tech/Pharma Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Around Even
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.6 +1.9%
• Nasdaq Intraday % Swing .70 -4.1%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 70.1 -1.9% 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.84 +.77%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 186.98 +.06%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.04 +2.7%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 19.4 -.6% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 149.0 -6.0

• Total Put/Call .82 +5.1%

• NYSE Arms 1.43 +26.6%
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$170.7M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.5 +.6%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 380.2 +2.1%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 210.0 unch.

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 60.2 +1.5%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 138.0 +.9%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 93.0 basis points +2.0 basis points

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 73.0 +2.6%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 161.7 +1.6%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 110.7 +14.9%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.89 +.08%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -22.25 basis points unch.

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread 9.75 basis point +1.25 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.0 unch.
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 149.0 unch.
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 604.0 -1.0 basis point
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 57.0 +1.0

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.13 -.08% 
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.36% -7.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.36% +1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 94.1 USD/Metric Tonne -.5%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 36.2 euros/megawatt-hour +.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -13.4 -1.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 27.3 -.1 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 34.0 +.2 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(499 of 500 reporting) +12.7% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 277.70 +.14:  Growth Rate +9.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.7 -.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.21% -2.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +33.0% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 431.29 +.25: Growth Rate +15.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.0 -.1
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .44 -4.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.43 +4.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.7 -.4
• US Yield Curve 45.25 basis points (2s/10s) -1.5 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.8% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 41.1% +4.1 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.58% unch.: CPI YoY +2.61% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.53 -9.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.27 -2.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for July 30th FOMC meeting:  76.9% (-4.5 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th meeting: 60.4%(+2.6 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +146 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -78 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +20 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/utility sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.3%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Retail -1.0% 2) Regional Banks -.9% 3) Airlines -.8%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• UNFI, IOT, BA, CPRX, QSG, MLNK, SERV, QUBT, OUST, PHR, CERT, OPFI, OXM, SDGR, SBET, PPTA, SLP and GME

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) CFG 2) HPP 3) ORCL 4) HTZ 5) GME

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) GME 2) OXM 3) HOFT 4) CNMD 5) OUST

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) XLV 3) XLI 4) XBI 5) KRE

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.6%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Electrification +2.7% 2) Gold & Silver +2.5% 3) Software +2.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• LIMN, ARAI, CVGW, ORCL, PHAT, HIPO, CYD, TAC, DOGZ, ATAT, APLD, ATRO, AU, GENI, ONC, RARE, SEZL, CRDO, LEGN, PGY, ZLAB, LQDA, AEHR, MESO, MP, TRMD, SAIL, AAOI and B

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) WMB 2) EQX 3) CF 4) CFG 5) ORCL

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ORCL 2) CVAC 3) SAIL 4) SAGT 5) MIR

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) ARKK 2) VGT 3) VPU 4) VOX 5) VIS

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment for June is estimated to rise to 53.6 versus 52.2 in May.
• Univ. of Mich. 1Y Inflation Expectations Index for June is estimated to fall to +6.4% versus a prior expectation of +6.6%. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The US Baker Hughes oil rig count, weekly CFTC speculative net positioning reports, (BBY) annual meeting, (REGN) annual meeting, (YELP) annual meeting, (MRVL) annual meeting, (FTNT) annual meeting, (TOST) annual meeting, Wolfe Research Materials of the Future Conference and the Wells Fargo MedTech Innovation Spotlight Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -3.3% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 37.5 +15.9
• 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
• 46.1% of Issues Advancing, 51.6% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.35 +19.5%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$152.1M
  
• 51 New 52-Week Highs, 19 New Lows
• 45.2% (+.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 66.2 -1.1

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 70.2 -1.7%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 241.9 -.4%
  
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 165.66 +.29%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 62.0 (GREED) -4.0
• 1-Day Vix 12.2 -12.5%
  
• Vix 18.0 +4.5%
  
• Total Put/Call .80 +2.6%

Thursday Watch

Around X:

• @Business

• The Trump administration is reducing embassy staff in Iraq and allowing military service-members’ families to leave the Middle East in response to ongoing security concerns.
• President Donald Trump said he intended to send letters to trading partners in the next one to two weeks setting unilateral tariff rates, ahead of a July 9 deadline.
• Samsung and Nvidia will take minority stakes in Skild AI as they seek to bolster their work in the emerging consumer robotics industry.
• The World Bank lifts its ban on supporting nuclear power, and is discussing whether to fund upstream natural gas projects.
• Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market. 
• Gold gained for a second day on increased tensions in the Middle East, with its haven status also supported by Trump’s comments on tariff rates.
• Mineral explorers hoping to tap into surging demand for rare earths are vying for a slice of nearly $1 billion in Brazilian funding to help make their projects a reality in a nation with the biggest reserves after China.
• A frustrated Mark Zuckerberg is personally hiring to create a new "superintelligence" AI team at Meta.
• For four months, economists predicted inflation would reignite due to Donald Trump’s trade war. For four months, data released by the Trump administration’s Bureau of Labor Statistics came in lower than expected: Here’s your Evening Briefing.
• Chime and some of its shareholders are raising $864 million in an IPO.
• Moderna is in discussions with large drugmakers and financial firms to get funding for some late-stage vaccine trials
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets. 
• Here's what you need to know to start your day.

• @ZeroHedge 

• "Another Reason To Leave": Top Maryland Power Official Warns Of Regular Rolling Blackouts.
• LA More Than An Insurrection, "It's A Bolshevik-Style Revolution" Driven By Foreign Money.
• Islamic Republic of Iran - "WE ARE READY". 
• Abu Alaa Al-Walaei, the Commander of Kataib Sayeed Al-Shuhada, an Iranian-backed paramilitary group operating in Iraq as part of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), released a statement earlier today vowing attacks against U.S. assets and allies in the Middle East in the case of war with Iran.
• China Resumes U.S. Propane Imports, Easing Fears Of Plastic Plant Shutdowns.
• Democrats Ambush Hegseth Over Trump's LA Troop Deployment... Instantly Regret It.
• "the United States is on high alert in anticipation of a potential Israeli strike on Iran".
• The race for interest payments ($1.2TN) to overtake Social Security ($1.5TN) is on. (graph)  
• 'All US Bases Within Our Reach': Iran Responds To Threats From Washington.
• Your New Life Of Driverless Cars.
• Bonds, Bullion, & Black Gold Bid As Mideast Tensions Trump Soft CPI.

• @MarioNawful   

• LAPD SURROUNDS PROTESTERS WITH WEAPONS DRAWN, FIRES NON-LETHAL ROUNDS. Police declared the assembly unlawful in downtown LA, surrounding protesters with weapons and batons drawn. Explosions heard as non-lethal rounds are fired.
• SEN. HAWLEY: THESE AREN’T SPONTANEOUS, THEY’RE PAID FLASH MOBS. "These aren't spontaneous at all. They're about as authentic as AstroTurf. They are bought and paid for flash mobs, and I wanna know who's doing the buying and the paying." (video)
• KEVIN O'LEARY: TRUMP AND ELON RECONCILING IS GOOD FOR AMERICA. "I'm pretty happy that Trump and Elon have started to reconcile their differences. Elon is the number one industrialist in America... the envy of the world. Trump wants to have that in his back pocket. If they have a little fight for a week or two, so what? The relationship's going to be there again. I think it's a good thing. And the market loved it, by the way." (video)
• TULSI: DOJ AND FBI LOOKING INTO WHO’S FUNDING VIOLENT PROTESTERS. "This is something that the Department of Justice and the FBI is looking into, who is funding these protesters. We've seen the ads put up on Craigslist offering people thousands of dollars a week to go out and conduct these violent and dangerous riots in the streets of not only Los Angeles, but we saw earlier in Chicago and New York and other cities across the country." (video)

• @LauraLoomer 

• Massive cyber attacks across the Middle East have started. Iran is attacking Kuwaiti and Jordanian military servers.
• NEW: Leonard Leo is STILL sneaking Never Trumpers into the judiciary. Just last week, 4 nominees for the 8th Circuit Eastern District of Missouri had their judiciary committee hearing, and it’s SO bad.

• @TheTranscript 

• $ORCL CTO: "MultiCloud database revenue from Amazon, Google & Azure grew 115% from Q3 to Q4. We currently have 23 MultiCloud datacenters live with 47 more being built over the next 12 months. We expect triple-digit MultiCloud revenue growth to continue in FY26."
• Oracle CEO: "FY25 was a very good year—but we believe FY26 will be even better as our revenue growth rates will be dramatically higher. We expect our total cloud growth rate—applications plus infrastructure—will increase from 24% in FY25 to over 40% in FY26". $ORCL: +7% AH.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.25% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.25 +.5 basis point. 
• China Sovereign CDS 44.75 +1.0 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 94.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.6%.
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.81 +.41%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.18 +.05%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 70.1 -1.7%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.39% -3.0 basis points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.4 +1.4%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.59%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.38%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.46%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by consumer discretionary and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.