Monday, December 15, 2025

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business  
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @CNBC
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -1.5% to -.75% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.25 +.75 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 42.75 -.24 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 102.6 USD/Metric Tonne +1.1%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.85 -.02%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.15 -.01%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 93.6 -.8%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.16% -1.0 basis point.
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.37% unch. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.9 +1.7%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.54%. 
  • S&P 500 futures -.52%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.79%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Modestly Lower into Final Hour on AI Infrastructure Build-Out Concerns, Returning Crypto Worries, Technical Selling, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.15 +.01%
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.18% unch.
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.62% +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 102.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 27.4 euros/megawatt-hour -.9%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 11.0 -5.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 30.8 -.5 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 31.2 -3.0 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 500 reporting) +41.3% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 307.11 -.29:  Growth Rate +14.1% -.1 percentage point, P/E 22.2 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.49% -25.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a +n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 515.95 +4.52: Growth Rate +25.6% +1.0 percentage point, P/E 30.7 -.9
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .72 -5.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.35 -6.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.5 -.2
  • US Yield Curve 67.25 basis points (2s/10s) +1.25 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.6% +10.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 27.3% -.2 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.76% unch.: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.38 -4.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.26 -2.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for March 18th FOMC meeting: 48.9% (-1.6 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for April 29th meeting: 44.3%(+.8 percentage point) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +130 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -34 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -16 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/utility/industrial sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth -.6%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Computer Hardware -1.8% 2) Alt Energy -1.5% 3) Energy -1.4%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • ONC, SLDE, ARGX, CXT, COST, KRP, TXO, FEIM, TLRY, ACLX, GWRE, AVGO, FLY, LENZ, CSGP, ZG, Z, DXYZ, PVLA and NOW
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) NEXT 2) CGC 3) LAZR 4) MIST 5) GLXY
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) IRBT 2) NOW 3) ZG 4) CSGP 5) TLRY
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) FXR 2) SMH 3) IBB 4) XBI 5) XLI

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value +.1%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Pharma +1.7% 2) Utilities +.7% 3) Restaurants +.6%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • KYTX, IMNM, VOR, ZIM, ANF, OXM, CMP, AEO, GME, RIVN, CBLL, TBD, FOLD, MAZE, TSLA, ORLA, MOD, AXTI, TIGO, RGNX, EVCM, ADUR, CPRX, DOCS and NTNX
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) EWY 2) CMA 3) Z 4) CGC 5) GOSS 
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) TSLA 2) KLAC 3) ZIM 4) BMY 5) ACRE
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) MISL 2) XLK 3) XLF 4) XLC 5) SILJ
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • None of note
After the Close: 
  • (LEN)/2.21
  • (WOR)/.70 
Economic Release 
8:30 am EST
  • ADP Weekly Employment Preliminary Estimate.
  • The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for Nov. is estimated at 50K.
  • Average Hourly Earnings MoM for Nov. is estimated to rise +.3%.
  • The Unemployment Rate for Nov. is estimated at 4.5%. 
  • Retail Sales Advance MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.2% gain in Sept.
  • Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.3% gain in Sept.
  • Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a -.1% decline in Sept.
  • NY Fed Services Business Activity for Dec. 
9:45 am EST
  • S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for Dec. is estimated to fall to 52.0 versus 52.2 in Nov.
  • S&P Global US Services PMI for Dec. is estimated to fall to 54.0 versus 54.1 in Nov.
  • S&P Global US Composite PMI for Dec. is estimated to fall to 53.9 versus 54.2 in Nov. 

10:00 am EST

  • Business Inventories for Sept. is estimated to rise +.1% versus unch. in Aug. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The weekly US retail sales reports, weekly API crude oil stock report, (WOLF) annual meeting, (VITL) investor day and the (CSCO) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -11.1% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.3 +.9
  • 7 Sectors Declining, 4 Sectors Rising
  • 41.8% of Issues Advancing, 55.7% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.08 +54.3%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$148.5M
  • 102 New 52-Week Highs, 32 New Lows
  • 64.1% (-1.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 61.3 -3.7
Polymarket:
  • Supreme Court Rules in Favor of Trump's Tariffs? 27.0% unch.
  • Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31st? 33.0% -1.0 percentage point
  • Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 14.0% unch.
  • US-Venezuela military engagement by Jan. 31st 31.0% -7.0 percentage points
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 93.9 -2.1%
  • US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 430.75 +3.75 basis point
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 263.9 +.1%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 158.2 +.1%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 43.0 (FEAR) +1.0
  • 1-Day Vix 12.3 -1.3%
  • Vix 16.8 +6.6%
  • Total Put/Call .90 unch.