Stocks Modestly Lower into Final Hour on AI Infrastructure Build-Out Concerns, Returning Crypto Worries, Technical Selling, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.15 +.01%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.18% unch.
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.62% +1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 102.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 27.4 euros/megawatt-hour -.9%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 11.0 -5.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 30.8 -.5 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 31.2 -3.0 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 500 reporting) +41.3% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 307.11 -.29:  Growth Rate +14.1% -.1 percentage point, P/E 22.2 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.49% -25.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a +n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 515.95 +4.52: Growth Rate +25.6% +1.0 percentage point, P/E 30.7 -.9
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .72 -5.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.35 -6.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.5 -.2
• US Yield Curve 67.25 basis points (2s/10s) +1.25 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.6% +10.0 basis points
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 27.3% -.2 percentage point

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.76% unch.: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.38 -4.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.26 -2.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for March 18th FOMC meeting: 48.9% (-1.6 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for April 29th meeting: 44.3%(+.8 percentage point) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +130 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -34 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -16 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/utility/industrial sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long