Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.5 +.6%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .24 +1.0 basis point
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.30 unch.
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.6 +.1%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 124.7 +.6%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.9 unch.
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 7.3 +2.0 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 32.5 -.2 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 32.4 +3.5 points
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) +32.8% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 310.16 +.30: Growth Rate +15.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.2 -.2
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.52% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a +n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 484.26 +.78: Growth Rate +17.9% +.2 percentage point, P/E 32.9 -.4
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .81 -1.0 basis point
- US Yield Curve 65.0 basis points (2s/10s) +.25 basis point
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 160.0 -2.0%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 28.7% +.3 percentage point
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +3.0% unch.
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.11% -2.0 basis points
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 +4.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for March 18th FOMC meeting: 47.7% (+1.0 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for April 29th meeting: 45.9%(unch.) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -115 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -46 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +180 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/consumer discretionary/financial sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
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