Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.2 +.03%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.09% unch.
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.75% -3.0 basis points
- China Iron Ore Spot 104.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 28.0 euros/megawatt-hour -.6%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 11.5 +.8 point
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 17.4 +.8 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 25.3 -.5 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(485 of 500 reporting) +13.0% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 305.35 +.09: Growth Rate +13.5% unch., P/E 22.3 -.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.49% -1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +17.6% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 508.67 +.30: Growth Rate +25.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.6 unch.
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .61 -2.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.38 +14.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.5 +.1
- US Yield Curve 56.75 basis points (2s/10s) +1.25 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.9% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 32.5% -1.0 percentage point
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.85% unch.: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.60 -1.0 basis point
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.25 unch.
- Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th FOMC meeting: 66.6% (-.5 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for March 18th meeting: 47.1%(-2.1 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +240 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -75 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +63 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some
- Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
No comments:
Post a Comment