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| S&P 500 6,835.8 +.2% |
Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.
Indices
- DJIA 48,241.6 -.4%
- NASDAQ 23,288.9 +.4%
- Russell 2000 2,528.1 -.8%
- NYSE FANG+ 15,874.2 -1.6%
- Goldman 50 Most Shorted 244.4 -2.5%
- Vaneck Social Sentiment 33.5 -.6%
- Wilshire 5000 67,555.5 +.11%
- Russell 1000 Growth 4,761.8 +.4%
- Russell 1000 Value 2,073.2 -.2%
- S&P 500 Consumer Staples 872.7 -.8%
- Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 265.7 +.7%
- NYSE Technology 7,366.6 +.54%
- Transports 17,507.7 +.4%
- Utilities 1,070.2 +.2%
- MSCI Europe Banks 110.7 +3.5%
- MSCI Emerging Markets 53.65 -.9%
- Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 249.0 -.13%
- Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 129.1 +.2%
Sentiment/Internals
- NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 587,491 -.4%
- Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.7 +28.8%
- Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 128 -1,500
- Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -8.7 -.8%
- CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 51,037 -7.2%
- CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,914,667 +1.3%
- Total Put/Call .81 -10.0%
- OEX Put/Call 1.16 unch.
- ISE Sentiment 130.0 -27.5%
- NYSE Arms .86 +20.0%
- Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 96.8 +1.0%
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .63 -14.0 basis points
- Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.51 +10.0 basis points
- Volatility(VIX) 15.3 -3.0%
- S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .61 -57.9%
- CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 13.9 -1.1%
- G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.6 -3.8%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 6.4 +1.3%
- Smart Money Flow Index 21,205.7 +1.7%
- NAAIM Exposure Index 100.7 +14.1
- ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $7.666 Trillion +.14%
- ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$7.334 Million
- AAII % Bulls 44.1 -1.1%
- AAII % Bears 33.2 +8.5%
- CNN Fear & Greed Index 46.0 (Moved to NEUTRAL from FEAR) +4.0
Futures Spot Prices
- CRB Index 293.2 -2.5%
- Crude Oil 56.7/bbl. -1.3%
- Reformulated Gasoline 170.9 -2.4%
- Natural Gas 3.99 -3.0%
- US Power PJM Western Hub Peak Forward Y1 65.3 USD/Megawatt -5.6%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 28.2 euros/megawatt-hour +2.2%
- Heating Oil 212.8 -3.1%
- Newcastle Coal 105.0 (1,000/metric ton) unch.
- Gold 4,347.7 +1.3%
- Silver 67.2 +8.6%
- S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 527.5 +1.5%
- Copper 550.2 +2.8%
- US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 367.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%
- China Iron Ore Spot 104.0 USD/Metric Tonne +2.5
% China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 13,125.0 USD/metric tonne +2.7%
- CME Lumber 559.0 -.1%
- UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,319.9 -2.1%
- US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 310.0 USD/Short Ton +.7%
Economy
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.5% -.1 percentage point
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 28.2 +1.0 percentage point
- NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.3 unch.
- US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 385.7 -40.0%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.5 -9.1%
- DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $214.0 Billion($1,329.19 Savings Per Taxpayer) unch.
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) +32.8% +n/a percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 309.0 +n/a: Growth Rate +14.8% +n/a percentage points, P/E 21.9 +n/a
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.51% +1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +17.6% +7.6 percentage points
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 517.45 +n/a: Growth Rate +25.9% +n/a percentage point, P/E 30.3 +n/a
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -.5 -16.8 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 30.4 -.9 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 30.8 -3.4 points
- Fed Fund Futures imply 22.1%(-2.3 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 3.25-3.5%, 77.9%(+2.3 percentage points) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 3.75-4.0% on 1/28/26
- US Dollar Index 98.60 +.19%
- MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,835.9 -.2%
- Bitcoin/USD 87,088 -1.3%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 209.5 +1.0%
- Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.85 +.1%
- Yield Curve(2s/10s) 66.25 +.25 basis point
- 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.15% -4.0 basis points
- Japan 30-Year Yield 3.43% +7.0 basis points.
- Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.509 Trillion +.3%
- Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $8.850 Billion +12.7%
- U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 30.0 -2.3%
- Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 184.74 -1.9%
- Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 69.0 unch.
- UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 17.8 +.03%
- China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 43.9 +2.9%
- Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 139.96 +3.0%
- Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 65.0 -1.5%
- South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 22.0 -2.2%
- China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.5 +.4%
- China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 116.0 -.2%
- Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.6% -20.0 basis points
- Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +2.3% -20.0 basis points
- US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +2.6% -50.0 basis points
- CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +3.0% -30.0 basis points
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.75% -10.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.62% -34.0 basis points
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.26 -17.0 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.23 -5.0 basis points
- Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread -2.25 basis points +2.0 basis points
- 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -17.75 -.5 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -.25 +2.0 basis points
- N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 50.8 +.1%
- America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 192.0 +8.4%
- High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 434.79 +1.8%
- Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 235.0 -24.0
- European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 54.8 -1.3%
- Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 125.7 -1.6%
- MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 116.0 -6.0 basis points
- Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 595.0 -2.0 basis points
- Avg. Auto ABS OAS .55 unch
- M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +4.6% +10.0 basis points
- Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,324.5B +.8%
- 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 217,500 +.2%
- Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
- Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 56.3 +2.9%
- Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.32% +1.0 basis point
- Weekly Mortgage Applications 315,600 -3.8%
- Weekly Retail Sales +5.9% +.2 percentage point
- OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +6.0% -4.0 percentage points
- Box Office Weekly Gross $197.9M -13.2%
- Nationwide Gas $2.88/gallon -.05/gallon
- Baltic Dry Index 2,071.0 -6.1%
- Drewry World Container Freight Index $2,181.9/40 ft Box +11.5%
- China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,124.7 +.6%
- Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 62.5 -3.9%
- Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 75.1 -6.5%
- Rail Freight Carloads 294,284 +5.0%
- TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,636,717 +22.4%
- Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Approval Tacking Poll 45.0% -1.0 percentage point
Best Performing Style
- Large-Cap Growth +.4%
Worst Performing Style
- Small-Cap Value -.8%
Leading Sectors
- Gold & Silver +3.9%
- Restaurants +2.7%
- Coal +2.2%
- Pharma +1.8%
- Social Media +1.1%
Lagging Sectors
- Digital Health -2.4%
- Homebuilding -3.0%
- Oil Service -3.6%
- Road & Rail -3.9%
- Energy -4.3%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (63)
- FOLD, LUNR, CRWV, BMRN, FLY, CUK, RKLB, LEU, EWTX, HUT, NBIS, CMCL, MIRM, PONY, PL, RIVN, ORKA, SPRY, WGO, SGML, SEPN, NAVN, DJT, CCL, CDE, TYRA, ORCL, WGO, NAVN, HSAI, CRDO, HYMC, MU, PHAT, ZLAB, NCLH, ZLAB, HEI, LI, ALB, STAA, AVO, MESO, INFY, LRCX, APH, AXON, AXSM, ERO, WWD, HII, NVDA, EYPT, AAUC, JBIO, NTNX, BA, GMAB, CMP and RCL
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (13)
- MNR, FDUS, IIPR, KBR, HHH, LPX, ADUR, PAHC, KBH, IRON, NKE, TLRY and LW
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change
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