Tuesday, December 16, 2025

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on US Economic Data, Quad Witching Positioning, Technical Selling, Energy/Healthcare Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.1 -.04%
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.15% -3.0 basis points
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.61% -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 103.1 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 26.7 euros/megawatt-hour -2.4%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 8.0 -3.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 32.4 +1.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 30.9 -.3 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 500 reporting) +41.3% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 307.32 +.21:  Growth Rate +14.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.1 -.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.49% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a +n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 516.63 +.68: Growth Rate +25.7% +.1 percentage point, P/E 30.6 -.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .68 -4.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.41 +6.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.5 unch.
  • US Yield Curve 66.75 basis points (2s/10s) -.5 basis point
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.5% -10.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 28.1% +.8 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.76% unch.: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.26 -12.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.23 -3.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for March 18th FOMC meeting: 46.0% (-3.0 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for April 29th meeting: 44.8%(+.8 percentage point) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +475 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -9 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +175 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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