Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.19 -.23%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.14% +4.0 basis points
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.69% -1.0 basis point
- China Iron Ore Spot 102.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.7%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 27.3 euros/megawatt-hour +.7%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 11.8 +1.3 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 30.0 +5.3 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 29.5 -1.3 points
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(495 of 500 reporting) +12.9% -.1 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 305.70 +.11: Growth Rate +13.6% unch., P/E 22.5 +.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.49% +1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +17.5% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 509.69 +.29: Growth Rate +24.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.6 +.2
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .69 +3.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.46 -6.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.9 unch.
- US Yield Curve 57.5 basis points (2s/10s) -.25 basis point
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.5% -.3 percentage point
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 29.8% -.9 percentage point
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.85% unch.: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.60 +2.0 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.27 unch.
- Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th FOMC meeting: 65.8% (-.4 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for March 18th meeting: 46.9%(+1.0 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +200 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -3 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +41 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/tech sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
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