Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.1 -.06%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.18% +2.0 basis points
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.70% unch.
- China Iron Ore Spot 101.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 27.5 euros/megawatt-hour +2.3%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 21.8 +8.8 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 32.1 -.2 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 31.6 +1.9 points
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(496 of 500 reporting) +12.9% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 306.18 +.15: Growth Rate +13.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.4 unch.
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.48% -1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +17.5% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 510.79 +.31: Growth Rate +24.4% unch., P/E 32.6 +.1
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .68 -5.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.41 -5.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.2 unch.
- US Yield Curve 57.25 basis points (2s/10s) -1.75 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.5% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 28.2% -.3 percentage point
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.76% unch.: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.56 -6.0 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.27 unch.
- Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th FOMC meeting: 67.5% (-.5 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for March 18th meeting: 52.7%(+4.5 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +420 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -90 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating -14 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/financial/utility/tech sector longs and emerging market shorts
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
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