Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.0 -.9%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .26 +2.0 basis points
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.29 +1.0 basis point
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.3 -.6%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 125.0 unch.
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.3 +.4
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 8.3 +1.0 point
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 32.5 unch.
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 29.1 -3.3 points
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) +32.8% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 310.26 +.10: Growth Rate +15.2% unch., P/E 22.2 unch.
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.50% -2.0 basis points
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a +n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 484.46 +.20: Growth Rate +17.9% unch., P/E 32.9 unch.
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .77 -4.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 67.25 basis points (2s/10s) +2.25 basis points
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 164.6 +2.9%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 28.8% +.1 percentage point
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +3.0% unch.
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.13% +2.0 basis points
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 unch.
- Highest target rate probability for March 18th FOMC meeting: 48.0% (+.6 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for April 29th meeting: 46.0%(+.1 percentage point) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -115 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -46 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +180 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my utility/tech sector longs and index hedges
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 75% Net Long
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