Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.16 -.06%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.17% +3.0 basis points
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.70% +1.0 basis point
- China Iron Ore Spot 101.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.7%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 26.9 euros/megawatt-hour -1.5%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 132.0 +1.2 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 32.3 +2.3 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 29.7 +.2 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(495 of 500 reporting) +12.9% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 306.03 +.33: Growth Rate +13.7% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.4 -.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.49% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +17.5% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 510.48 +.79: Growth Rate +24.4% +.2 percentage point, P/E 32.5 -.1
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .73 +4.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.46 unch.
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.2 +.3
- US Yield Curve 59.0 basis points (2s/10s) +1.5 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.5% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 28.5% -1.3 percentage points
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.76% -9.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.56 -4.0 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.27 unch.
- Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th FOMC meeting: 68.5% (+3.1 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for March 18th meeting: 49.5%(+2.6 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -91 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -57 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating -3 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my consumer financial/tech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
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