Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on More Dovish Than Expected Fed, Stable Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Metals & Mining/Healthcare Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.2 +.2%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.14% -1.0 basis point
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.65% -2.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 102.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.7%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 26.8 euros/megawatt-hour +.8%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 25.6 -5.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 31.5 -.2 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 32.6 +1.0 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 500 reporting) +41.3% n/a
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 307.44 +1.13:  Growth Rate +14.2% +.4 percentage point, P/E 22.4 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.74% +25.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a +n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 511.29 +.28: Growth Rate +24.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.2 -.2
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .72 +4.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.36 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.9 -.4
• US Yield Curve 61.0 basis points (2s/10s) +1.5 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.6% +10.0 basis points
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 28.4% +1.1 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.76% unch.: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.45 -3.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.26 -1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for March 18th FOMC meeting: 52.0% (-1.8 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Arpil 29th meeting: 42.8%(+3.3 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +892 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +12 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +105 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/financial/utility/tech/industrial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long