Tuesday, December 23, 2025

Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on US Economic Data, Stable Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Tech/Commodity Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.15 +.09%
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.17% unch.
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.59% -2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 103.6 USD/Metric Tonne -.7%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 27.73 euros/megawatt-hour +.16%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 1.7 +6.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 33.3 -.1 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 30.4 +.4 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) +32.8% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 309.59 +.21:  Growth Rate +15.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.3 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.52% +1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a +n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 518.64 +n/a: Growth Rate +n/a% +n/a, P/E 30.7 +n/a
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .79 +5.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.58 -7.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.8 +.1
  • US Yield Curve 63.75 basis points (2s/10s) -2.25 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.0% -.5 percentage point
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 27.9% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.76% +1.0 basis point: CPI YoY +2.59% -3.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.24 +1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for March 18th FOMC meeting: 52.6% (+5.5 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for April 29th meeting: 44.3%(-1.0 percentage point) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +250 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +43 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +160 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/utility/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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