Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.1 -.03%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.16% -3.0 basis points
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.68% -2.0 basis points
- China Iron Ore Spot 102.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.34%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 26.6 euros/megawatt-hour -3.2%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 21.8 unch.
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 31.7 -.4 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 31.6 unch.
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(496 of 500 reporting) +12.9% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 306.31 +.13: Growth Rate +13.8% unch., P/E 22.4 unch.
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.49% +1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +17.5% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 511.01 +.22: Growth Rate +24.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.4 -.2
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .68 unch.
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.36 -5.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.3 +.1
- US Yield Curve 59.5 basis points (2s/10s) +2.25 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.5% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 27.3% -.9 percentage point
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.76% unch.: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.48 -8.0 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.27 unch.
- Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th FOMC meeting: 73.4% (+3.6 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for March 18th meeting: 55.0%(+.7 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +270 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -42 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +60 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/financial/utility/tech/industrial sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
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