Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Diminishing AI Infrastructure Build Out Worries, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Alt Energy/Defense Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.3 -4.2%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .34 -50.7%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 98.3 +1.4% 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.88 -.4%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 209.2 -.2%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.5 +.6%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 12.3 -7.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 163.0 +23.0

• Total Put/Call .80 -5.9%

• NYSE Arms .93 -25.0%
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$108.4M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.4 -.7%
  

• US Energy Sector High-Yield OAS Index 329.5 -2.7%
• US Tech Sector High-Yield OAS Index 429.5 -1.0%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 226.0 -9.0

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.5 -.5%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 70.0 +1.0 basis point

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.6 -1.1%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 124.9 -.7%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.51 +.08%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -18.0 basis points unch.

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -2.25 basis points +.5 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap .5 +.75 basis point
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 115.0 unch.
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 591.0 unch.
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 55.0 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.09 +.05%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.17% +2.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.61% +1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 104.8 USD/Metric Tonne -.01%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 27.7 euros/megawatt-hour -1.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -4.6 -4.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 33.4 +3.0 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 30.0 -.8 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) +32.8% -8.1 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 309.38 +1.89:  Growth Rate +14.9% +.7 percentage point, P/E 22.2 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.51% +1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a +n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 518.64 +1.54: Growth Rate +26.2% +.4 percentage point, P/E 30.7 +.3
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .74 +26.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.65 +21.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.7 +.2
• US Yield Curve 66.0 basis points (2s/10s) +.5 basis point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.5% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 27.9% -1.3 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.75% -1.0 basis point: CPI YoY +2.62% -34.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 +4.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.23 -1.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for March 18th FOMC meeting: 47.1% (+2.9 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for April 29th meeting: 45.3%(-.4 percentage point) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +60 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +41 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +180 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/utility/industrial/financial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long