Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.14 -.12%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.19% +4.0 basis points
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.61% -4.0 basis points
- China Iron Ore Spot 100.8 USD/Metric Tonne -1.2%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 27.7 euros/megawatt-hour +3.3%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 16.3 -9.3 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 31.3 -.2 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 34.2 +1.6 points
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 500 reporting) +41.3% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 307.40 -.04: Growth Rate +14.2% unch., P/E 22.2 -.2
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.74% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a +n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 511.43 +.14: Growth Rate +24.6% unch., P/E 31.6 -.6
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .77 +5.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.41 +5.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.7 -.2
- US Yield Curve 66.0 basis points (2s/10s) +5.0 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.6% +10.0 basis points
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 27.5% -.9 percentage point
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.76% unch.: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.42 unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.28 unch.
- Highest target rate probability for March 18th FOMC meeting: 49.0% (-3.0 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for April 29th meeting: 43.9%(+1.1 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -650 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -82 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +55 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Lower: On losses in my consumer financial/tech/industrial sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
- Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long
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