Wednesday, December 24, 2025

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, US Economic Data, Technical Buying, Financial/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.18 +.08%
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.14% -3.0 basis points
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.63% +4.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 104.0 USD/Metric Tonne unch.
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 28.1 euros/megawatt-hour +1.2%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 4.7 +3.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 33.0 -.3 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 30.7 +.3 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) +32.8% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 309.65 +.06:  Growth Rate +15.0% unch., P/E 22.3 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.52% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a +n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 482.96 +n/a: Growth Rate +17.5% +n/a, P/E 33.3 +n/a
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .80 +1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.62 +4.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.8 unch.
  • US Yield Curve 62.25 basis points (2s/10s) -1.5 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +3.0% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 26.7% -1.2 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.76% unch.: CPI YoY +2.59% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.32 +1.0 basis point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.24 +1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for March 18th FOMC meeting: 52.6% (+1.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for April 29th meeting: 44.1%(-.3 percentage point) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +56 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +14 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +156 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/utility/industrial/financial/consumer discretionary sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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