Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.3 +.1%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.06% -3.0 basis points
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.72% -3.0 basis points
- China Iron Ore Spot 104.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 28.2 euros/megawatt-hour +.6%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 2.8 -8.7 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 24.8 +7.4 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 27.4 +2.1 points
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(487 of 500 reporting) +13.0% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 305.44 +.09: Growth Rate +13.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.4 +.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.49% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +17.5% -.1 percentage point
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 509.07 +.40: Growth Rate +24.0% -1.2 percentage points, P/E 32.5 -.1
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .64 +3.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.47 +9.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.4 -.1
- US Yield Curve 56.0 basis points (2s/10s) +.25 basis point
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.9% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 32.5% unch.
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.85% unch.: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.57 -3.0 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.25 unch.
- Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th FOMC meeting: 64.8% (+.4 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for March 18th meeting: 43.0%(-2.8 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -94 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -56 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +83 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my industrial/biotech/consumer discretionary sector longs and emerging market shorts
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
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