Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.22 +.02%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.09% +8.0 basis points
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.78% -1.0 basis point
- China Iron Ore Spot 103.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.12%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 28.2 euros/megawatt-hour -2.1%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 10.7 +.9 point
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 16.6 -1.1 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 25.8 -5.4 points
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(485 of 500 reporting) +13.0% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 305.26 +1.28: Growth Rate +13.5% +.4 percentage point, P/E 22.4 -.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.50% -1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +17.6% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 508.37 +3.83: Growth Rate +25.1% +.9 percentage point, P/E 32.6 -.1
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .63 +15.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.24 -32.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.4 +.1
- US Yield Curve 55.5 basis points (2s/10s) +3.5 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.9% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 33.5% -2.3 percentage points
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.85% unch.: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.61 +2.0 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.25 +2.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th FOMC meeting: 67.5% (+.4 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for March 18th meeting: 49.3%(+2.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +280 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -11 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +80 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary sector longs and index hedges
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
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