Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.3 -.02%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.11% +4.0 basis points
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.70% -2.0 basis points
- China Iron Ore Spot 104.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 27.1 euros/megawatt-hour -4.0%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 10.5 +7.7 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 24.7 -.1 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 30.8 +3.4 points
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(492 of 500 reporting) +13.0% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 305.59 +.14: Growth Rate +13.6% unch., P/E 22.4 unch.
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.48% -1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +17.5% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 509.40 +.37: Growth Rate +24.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.4 -.1
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .66 +2.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.52 +5.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.9 +.5
- US Yield Curve 57.75 basis points (2s/10s) +1.75 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.8% -.1 percentage point
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 30.7% -1.8 percentage points
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.85% unch.: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.58 +1.0 basis point
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.27 +2.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th FOMC meeting: 64.1% (-1.1 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for March 18th meeting: 44.6%(+2.2 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -438 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -35 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +30 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my industrial/tech/utility sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
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