Thursday, December 04, 2025

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Higher Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Profit-Taking, Consumer Discretionary/Pharma Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.3 -.02%
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.11% +4.0 basis points
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.70% -2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 104.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 27.1 euros/megawatt-hour -4.0%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 10.5 +7.7 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 24.7 -.1 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 30.8 +3.4 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(492 of 500 reporting) +13.0% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 305.59 +.14:  Growth Rate +13.6% unch., P/E 22.4 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.48% -1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +17.5% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 509.40 +.37: Growth Rate +24.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.4 -.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .66 +2.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.52 +5.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.9 +.5
  • US Yield Curve 57.75 basis points (2s/10s) +1.75 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.8% -.1 percentage point
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 30.7% -1.8 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.85% unch.: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.58 +1.0 basis point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.27 +2.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th FOMC meeting: 64.1% (-1.1 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for March 18th meeting: 44.6%(+2.2 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -438 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -35 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +30 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my industrial/tech/utility sector longs 
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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