Monday, December 29, 2025

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business  
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @CNBC
  • @MarioNawful 
  • MEET JODI HARPSTEAD: RAN MINNESOTA'S DAYCARE OVERSIGHT 2019-2024 - "THEY KNEW" ABOUT THE FRAUD. While Nick Shirley was finding $110 million in fraud in one day, one name keeps coming up: Jodi Harpstead. She ran the Minnesota Department of Human Services agency overseeing daycares from 2019-2024. The agency that licensed these facilities. Processed payments. Documented violations. And kept paying anyway. Video surfaced of Harpstead at a hearing:
  • $18 BILLION GONE: MINNESOTA SOCIAL PROGRAMS LOOTED AT “INDUSTRIAL SCALE”. 6 more people have been charged in what’s turning into one of the most outrageous public fund heists in the U.S. “Not a handful of bad actors… industrial scale fraud,” said Joe Thompson, First Assistant U.S Attorney. Minnesota flagged 14 programs as “high risk,” costing taxpayers $18 billion since 2018. Feds say half or more of that may have gone straight into scammers’ pockets. (video)
  • @ElonMusk
  • It’s not just daycares… Somalis in Minnesota have been setting up fake medical centers and fraudulently diagnosing their children with autism to systematically steal billions of taxpayer dollars through Medicaid. Medicaid autism claims: 2018 - $3 million. 2023 - $399 million.
  • Let me get this straight.. 1. Somali immigrants get billions in taxpayer dollars for *free* for fraudulent daycares. 2. in exchange, they fund democratic candidates with the free money. 3. democratic politicians (Walz, Omar, etc) ensure fraudulent payments continue. That is exactly what’s happening.
  • @GenFlynn
  • @RenzTom
  • @bennyjohnson
  • @TheSCIF
  • @BrianEastwood_X
  • @KariLake
  • @mattbanswol
  • @EricLDaugh
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @WarClandestine
  • Everything revolves around the Dems cheating in elections. They want the border open so they can import illegals, and they want elections insecure so they can let the illegals vote. They don’t want ICE/US MIL in their cities, because they don’t want their illegal voters to be deported. They opposed the One Big Beautiful Bill because it funds ICE/US MIL, and they know Trump is going to invoke the Insurrection Act to deploy troops to their cities to assist ICE in deporting the illegals. If the Dems can’t cheat in elections, they lose access to our tax dollars, and thus they lose all their power.
  • @WallStreetMav
  • Republican Rep Tom Emmer, the 3rd most powerful member in leadership for the Congress for House Republicans ... he basically told his constituents to be quiet about all of the Somalis being brought into St Cloud Minnesota. Tom Emmer is part of the problem.
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.75 +.25 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 43.25 -.5 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 105.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.88 +.08%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.1 +.01%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 98.3 +.4%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.11% unch.
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.42% -1.0 basis point. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.8 -.%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a. 
  • S&P 500 futures -.01%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.04%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Modestly Lower into Afternoon on Geopolitical Tensions, Metals Plunge, Profit-Taking, Alt Energy/Metals & Mining Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.5 +.6%
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .24 +1.0 basis point
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.30 unch.
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.6 +.1%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 124.7 +.6%
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.9 unch. 
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 7.3 +2.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 32.5 -.2 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 32.4 +3.5 points 
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) +32.8% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 310.16 +.30:  Growth Rate +15.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.2 -.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.52% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a +n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 484.26 +.78: Growth Rate +17.9% +.2 percentage point, P/E 32.9 -.4
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .81 -1.0 basis point
  • US Yield Curve 65.0 basis points (2s/10s) +.25 basis point 
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 160.0 -2.0% 
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 28.7% +.3 percentage point
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +3.0% unch. 
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.11% -2.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 +4.0 basis points 
  • Highest target rate probability for March 18th FOMC meeting: 47.7% (+1.0 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for April 29th meeting: 45.9%(unch.) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -115 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -46 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +180 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/consumer discretionary/financial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth -.6%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver -5.2% 2) Alt Energy -1.7% 3) Airlines -1.5%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • IDR, AXTI, ALMU, PHYS, SKE, PAAS, CEF, AUGO, ADUR, PSLV, SBSW and HYMC
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) VALE 2) WMB 3) AMPX 4) ZETA 5) UBS
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) NEM 2) RARE 3) CDE 4) FCX 5) KMX
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLP 2) FDN 3) ARKK 4) XRT 5) KBWB

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value -.2%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Energy +1.0% 2) Utilities +.7% 3) Telecom +.6%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • THH, RGC, PRAX, VELO, DBRG, NGL, PSNY, EVMN, DXYZ, OTF, SCHL and CRESY, 
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) URA 2) COMP 3) ZSL 4) SIL 5) COPX 
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) ORBS 2) DBRG 3) PRAX 4) SOPA 5) BNAI
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) PPA 2) XLU 3) SMH 4) IAI 5) XLV
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • None of note
After the Close: 
  • None of note
Economic Release 
8:15 am EST
  • ADP Weekly Employment Change. 
9:00 am EST
  • FHFA House Price Index MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.1% versus unch. in Sept.
  • The S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA for Oct. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.13% gain in Sept. 

9:45 am EST

  • The MNI Chicago PMI for Dec. is estimated to rise to 39.8 versus 36.3 in Nov. 

10:30 am EST

  • Dallas Fed Services Activity for Dec.

2:00 pm EST

  • Dec. 10th FOMC Meeting Minutes released. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The weekly US retail sales reports, Texas Services Sector Outlook for Dec., weekly API crude oil stock report and the (ZYME) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -33.9% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.9 -.3
  • 6 Sectors Declining, 5 Sectors Rising
  • 33.5% of Issues Advancing, 64.2% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .88 -14.6%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$97.3M
  • 32 New 52-Week Highs, 22 New Lows
  • 61.6% (-.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 61.1 -1.1
Polymarket:
  • Supreme Court Rules in Favor of Trump's Tariffs? 31.0% +1.0 percentage point
  • Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31st? 25.0% -3.0 percentage points
  • Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 13.0% unch.
  • US-Venezuela military engagement by Jan. 31st 40.0% -4.0 percentage points
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 97.3 unch.
  • US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 429.25 +3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 265.4 -.8%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 160.3 -.7%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 47.0 (Moved to NEUTRAL from GREED) -8.0
  • 1-Day Vix 7.8 +1.3%
  • Vix 14.6 +7.6%
  • Total Put/Call .85 +2.4%