Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.5%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Pharma -1.3% 2) Video Gaming -.7% 3) Gold & Silver -.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• CNI, DHT, COR, CTGO, CPAY, XPEV, PSIX, OSIS, BIPC, FEIM, AXTI, LLY, LBRX, BETA, SOFI, JJSF, DFIN, AAOI, ALM, SMTC, FRPT, ASO and TME

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) STWD 2) ALDX 3) CTMX 4) FISV 5) LW

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) HUYA 2) ICCM 3) BYND 4) LNSR 5) FRPT

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLP 2) GDX 3) ITA 4) BOTZ 5) GOAU

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +1.2%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service +3.3% 2) Airlines +3.0% 3) Road & Rail +2.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ALOY, AGRO, BW, LMND, SEI, GRPN, NP, NSP, TNDM, BETR, CC, BTSG, KMTS, GPRE, TGTX, ELAN, NVAX, DAL, CRCL, WDC, ATAT, RKLB, UMAC, ZG, Z, UBER, VIST, IMMX, LITE, APO, LYFT, MOS, VAL, LOCO, BBSI, AZTA, HAL, RGEN, E, GRDN, AIRO, AAL, CXW, UAL, LPLA, SBS, BX, VNO, AVO, ALK, FLGT, TS, RDDT, CAAP, HMY, PBR/A, DAR, SN, BXSL, ICUI, BILI, OMF, PBR, MU, TEO and CUBE

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) VSAT 2) SHOO 3) AGRO 4) TOI 5) RVMD 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) DAL 2) SEI 3) CTRN 4) LMND 5) TROX

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) SMH 3) XLV 4) SHLD 5) XLK

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (GIS)/.73
• (JBL)/2.51
• (M)/1.57
• (WB)/.32
• (WSM)/2.90 

After the Close: 

• (FIVE)/4.00
• (MU)/9.19 

Economic Release 

8:30 am EST

• PPI Final Demand MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.5% gain in Jan.
• PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.8% gain in Jan. 

10:00 am EST

• Factory Orders for Jan. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a -.7% decline in Dec.
• Factory Orders Ex Trans for Jan. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.4% gain in Dec.
• Final Durable Goods Orders readings for Jan. 

2:00 pm EST

• The FOMC is expected to leave the benchmark Fed Funds Rate at 3.5%-3.75%. 

4:00 pm EST

• Net Long-Term TIC Flows for Jan. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The FOMC press conference, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Wells Fargo Fintech Symposium, JPMorgan Industrials Conference, BofA Automotive Summit, BofA Industrials Conference, (DIS) annual meeting, (NVT) investor day and the BofA Auto Summit could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -8.5% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.0 +2.0
• 1 Sector Declining, 10 Sectors Rising
• 72.9% of Issues Advancing, 25.1% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .92 +7.0%
• Non-Block Money Flow +$187.6M
  
• 72 New 52-Week Highs, 22 New Lows
• 51.7% (+3.8%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 40.6 +4.0

Polymarket: 

• How long will the DHS shutdown last? 60+ days 47.0% +1.0 percentage point
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 11.0% +1.0 percentage point
• Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th 56.0% +5.0 percentage points

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 101.6 +.2%
• Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 100.0 +7.0
• Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 95.0% unch.
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 531.25 -4.5 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 243.8 +.1%
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 141.8 +.02%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 22.0 (EXTREME FEAR) -2.0
• 1-Day Vix 14.2 -18.4%
  
• Vix 23.0 -1.7%
  
• Total Put/Call .93 -6.1%

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

• @ZeroHedge

• The Prosthetic Principle: AI As Cognitive Infrastructure, Not Cognitive Authority.
• DOE Unleashes $500M To Break China's Grip On Critical Materials.
• Parents - Not Schools - Must Be In Charge Of Their Children.
• AAA National Average Gas Price Soars Most On Record.
• JUST IN. Cuba’s entire electrical grid collapses, plunging the country into blackout - CNN.
• And here we are. (pic)    
• Biden-Appointed Judge Blocks RFK Jr's Appointees To Vaccine Panel.
• Policy-Put Hopes Prevent Markets From Selling Off.
• SEC Preparing Proposal To Eliminate Quarterly Reporting Requirement.
• Extremely unexpected filing just popped up on my RSS feed: A DOJ lawyer has entered an appearance in the 35-year-old case against BCCI --- the bank that the CIA used to launder money in the 80s. This is the first filing in the case in over a decade. I have no idea what it means. Robert Maxwell's bank (Ghislaine's dad).
• North Korean Operatives Infiltrating U.S. Companies Through Remote Tech Jobs.
• The Greatest Risk For The Global Economy Is Stagflation Driven By Governments, Not Oil.
• *TRUMP, ASKED IF IRAN WAR WILL END THIS WEEK: I DON'T THINK SO.
• Armor-Piercing Ammo Metal Up 557% As China Chokes Supply, War Demand Surges.
• Iran Denies Talks Taking Place As Drone Smashes Into Landmark Baghdad Hotel Hosting EU, Saudi Diplomats.
• Iran has started a new phase of its oil war: Tehran is clearly going after the Strait of Hormuz bypass route, with Fujairah (UAE) coming under attack. But so far, the Saudi pipeline bypass hasn't been attacked (and neither the Yemeni Houthis have tried to close the Red Sea). (pic)      
• *IRAN SAYS REPORTS OF RECENT CONTACTS WITH US ARE FALSE: TASNIM.
• Oil Dumps, Stocks Jump As Some Ships Cross The Strait; Bitcoin Up, Gold Down Again.  

• @CNBC

• UAE temporarily closes airspace as Middle East war forces wider flight disruptions.
• Asia-Pacific markets set to track Wall Street gains as oil declines.   
• Tuesday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Stock futures are little changed after major averages rebound on easing oil prices: Live updates.
• Trump says U.S. asked China to delay Xi meeting 'a month or so' due to Iran war.  
• Nvidia GTC 2026: CEO Jensen Huang sees $1 trillion in orders for Blackwell and Vera Rubin through '27. 
• Nvidia adds Hyundai, BYD and other automakers to self-driving tech business. 

• @TonySeruga

• BREAKING: U.S. INTEL HOLDS SECRET EVIDENCE CHINA ACCESSED VOTER FILES. “In as early as February of 2020, the United States intelligence community determined that China had breached U.S. voter registration data, had gained access to the data that voters used to register to vote in the 2020 election.” (video)

• @MarioNawful

• C-RAM, the U.S. military’s rapid-fire gun system designed to shoot down rockets, drones, and mortars, just successfully intercepted one launched by Iranian-backed militias in Baghdad tonight. (video)

• @OcrazioCornPop

• KABUKI THEATER: John Thune is scheduling the "SAVE AMERICA ACT" vote for Wednesday, one day AFTER Texas's dropout deadline which will allow John Cornyn to remain in the Senate primary race. There will be no standard talking filibuster allowed, so it exercise for the low info voters and allow RINOs to try to blame Democrats for not passing it. It ensures the bill FAILS, while Cornyn can vote for it and say he tried to pass it. WHY ISN'T @realDonaldTrump TRYING TO REMOVE @LeaderJohnThune FROM LEADERSHIP YET? (pic)

• @BGatesIsaPsycho

• Social Media is awash with speculation that this is Doug Emhoff who is Kamala Harris’s husband - in the Epstein files - riding a private Helicopter with Jeffrey himself. It’s one big obvious club! (video)

• @WallStreetMav

• Cuba is entering their the 2nd night of a total electric grid collapse. There were blackouts for days before this, but now it is near total. Only some backup generators in some buildings. They will also run out of fuel soon. The govt leaders are in a panic as protesters demand they leave the country. (video)

• @WallStreetApes

• American in Texas came across one of the new driverless trucks. They are already being used to transport huge loads, this truck has 3 trailers. These new autonomous trucks are by the company Fountainhead and use Ai, allowing 24/7 operations. (video)

• @amuse

• SAVE ACT: The Senate is going to return to work this week to prepare for a 14 day vacation. During the vacation every 3 days 1 Senator will gavel in a fake session every 3 days to stop Trump’s recess appointments. They’re too busy to pass an 85-25 issue like election integrity.

• @nexta_tv

• Taiwan reports large-scale presence of Chinese military aircraft near its borders. (map)

• @runews

• All flights to and from Dubai have been temporarily suspended. (video)

• @EndWokeness

• In order to compete at the Oscars for Best Picture, all films must meet the "diversity inclusion" quota. Here are those rules. Yes, this is real. (pic)

• @HustleBitch_

• HOUSTON AIRPORT JUST TURNED INTO A MASS SLEEPOVER AFTER TSA LINES COLLAPSE — “LOOKS LIKE A DISASTER SHELTER”. Wild video from inside Houston’s airport shows rows of emergency cots set up across huge sections of the terminal floor as travelers deal with unbelievably long TSA security lines. Passengers say waits stretched for hours, triggering waves of missed flights and leaving people stranded overnight inside the airport. With the backlog growing, airport staff reportedly began setting up temporary sleeping areas right inside the terminal so travelers had somewhere to rest while waiting. (video)
• BENJAMIN NETANYAHU'S ORIGINAL LAST NAME WAS MILEIKOWSKY… HE WENT TO HIGH SCHOOL IN PHILADELPHIA — AND THE INTERNET IS MELTING DOWN OVER IT Yes… really. 

• @anthon7yandrews

• The Ghislaine Maxwell indictment. Read it if you haven’t. Pause is your friend. Please repost. It’s every American citizens#’s civil duty to be informed. (video)

• @sayerjigmi

• On September 11, 2015, Margaret Chan — Director General of the WHO — delivered the opening address at a conference secretly funded, directed, and operationally controlled by Jeffrey Epstein. The proof has been sitting in the federal archive for 2 months. No outlet has touched it. Until today. (thread)

• @MaryBowdenMD

• It's funny - like the US, Israel also hasn't updated their cancer data since 2022. Israel rolled out the COVID shots at lightning speed. It was granted early access because of its ability to track health data on nearly all of citizens. Then Israel hid the fact that 1 in 939 children ages 12-16 suffered an adverse cardiac event. This data didn't come until 2025 after FOIA requests. (pic)

• @Tablesalrt13

• HOLY CRAP. We might have the FIRST FOOTAGE of U.S BUNKER BUSTERS IN ACTION. This footage from Al-Jazeera is from Isfahan, Iran and it shows two small ground explosions and then THE ENTIRE WORLD SHAKES! INSANE! (video comes back clean from AIs). (video)

• @SenTuberville

• The 150-year-old Vondelkerk Church in the Netherlands was set on fire by Muslim migrants. Europe has fallen. America is next if we don't WAKE UP. (video)

• @World_Insights1

• SHIPS PASSING THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. (graphic)

• @ns123abc

• NVIDIA JUST ANNOUNCED DATA CENTERS IN SPACE. Jensen Huang: >we’re going into space. >we’ve already been out in space. >announces “Vera Rubin Space-1”. >"in space there's no conduction, no convection, just radiation". >"we have to figure out how to cool these systems in space". >"we've got lots of great engineers working on it". GPUs IN SPACE INCOMING.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.75% to +1.75% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 79.0 -2.0 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 47.0 -1.0 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 108.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.8%. 
• Crude Oil 96.0/bbl. +2.7% 
• Gold 5,027.8 USD/t oz. +.5%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.73 +.17%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.55 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 1101.6 +.2%
• US 10-Year Yield 4.23% +2.0 basis points.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.56% unch. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.3 +1.1%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.03%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.25%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.29%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Diminishing Prolonged Mideast War Fears, Oil Price Pullback, AI Infrastructure Build-Out Optimism, Tech/Defense Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 59.6 -3.2%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 70.0 -.1% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .27 unch.
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .32 -1.0 basis point
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 67.3 -2.5%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 151.0 -1.8%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 79.8 -1.8% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .9 unch.
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 87.4 -3.5 

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 28.5 +1.3

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 6.6 +.3

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 54.3 +16.5 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(498 of 500 reporting) +13.6% -.1 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 326.27 +1.14:  Growth Rate +17.5% +.4 percentage point, P/E 20.5 -.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 14.79% +1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +28.1% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 526.16 +1.06: Growth Rate +32.2% +.2 percentage point, P/E 28.0 -.4
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .13 -2.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 53.75 basis points (2s/10s) -2.0 basis points 
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 171.2 +.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 50.9 euros/megawatt-hour +1.5% 
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 24.6% +1.4 percentage points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +2.7% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.22% -6.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 4.72 +2.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for April 29th FOMC meeting: 97.0% (+62.9 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for June 17th meeting: 76.9%(+.7 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +630 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -30 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +54 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/biotech/consumer discretionary sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and emerging market shorts
• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long