Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Diminishing Prolonged Mideast War Fears, Oil Price Pullback, AI Infrastructure Build-Out Optimism, Tech/Defense Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 59.6 -3.2%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 70.0 -.1% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .27 unch.
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .32 -1.0 basis point
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 67.3 -2.5%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 151.0 -1.8%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 79.8 -1.8% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .9 unch.
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 87.4 -3.5 

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 28.5 +1.3

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 6.6 +.3

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 54.3 +16.5 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(498 of 500 reporting) +13.6% -.1 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 326.27 +1.14:  Growth Rate +17.5% +.4 percentage point, P/E 20.5 -.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 14.79% +1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +28.1% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 526.16 +1.06: Growth Rate +32.2% +.2 percentage point, P/E 28.0 -.4
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .13 -2.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 53.75 basis points (2s/10s) -2.0 basis points 
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 171.2 +.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 50.9 euros/megawatt-hour +1.5% 
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 24.6% +1.4 percentage points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +2.7% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.22% -6.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 4.72 +2.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for April 29th FOMC meeting: 97.0% (+62.9 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for June 17th meeting: 76.9%(+.7 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +630 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -30 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +54 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/biotech/consumer discretionary sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and emerging market shorts
• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long