Wednesday Watch

Around X:

• @Business  

• Governments are rushing to secure supplies of critical crop nutrients ahead of spring planting, as the Middle East war chokes off the flow of commodities and amplifies fears of a global food crisis. 
• SpaceX aims to file a prospectus for an initial public offering as soon as this week, the Information reported, kicking off one of the year’s most-anticipated market debuts. 
• Merck is in advanced talks to buy drugmaker Terns Pharmaceuticals, according to people familiar with the matter. 
• Walt Disney CEO Josh D’Amaro hasn’t even been been in his new job for one week and he’s already seen two, billion-dollar technology bets falter —- with one of them unraveling entirely.  
• Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr said policymakers may need to keep interest rates steady for “some time” to address inflation that’s notably above the central bank’s 2% goal.
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here’s what you need to know to start your day.  

• @ZeroHedge

• Here's Where Rent Growth In The US Is Finally Slowing.
• IRS Data Show Average Tax Refund Up Over 10% This Year.
• Mossad tells Iranians to keep reporting on regime forces. Israel is eliminating any leader, checkpoint, tool of repression dumb enough to be visible..
• Bud Light & Budweiser Continue To Struggle As Dylan Mulvaney Ad Disaster Nears Three-Year Mark.
• "Emergencies" Requiring Coal Plants To Stay Open Need Not Be Imminent, DOE Tells Court.
• What's The Matter With Meta: Goldman Explains The Stock's Ongoing Slump.
• NEWS that Congressional staff are not going to like- Delta is suspending its special congressional desk service for members of Congress until the shutdown is over.
• IRAN REFUSES PEACE TALKS WITH TRUMP'S 'BACKSTABBING' NEGOTIATORS': TELEGRAPH.
• BREAKING: The ‘far-right’ Danish People’s Party have QUADRUPLED their vote share in today’s General Election in Denmark, despite polling lowly. They advocate for closing Denmark’s borders, limiting asylum and deporting refugees. The Danish people want their Country back! (video) 
• Grounding Planes 'A Distinct Possibility': Tightened Global Fuel Supply Hitting Asian Nations Hardest. 
• EXPLOSIONS HEARD IN JORDANIAN CAPITAL OF AMMAN, AND CITIES OF BALQA AND RUSAIFA.
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  CHEVRON WARNS CALIFORNIA RISKS FUEL CRISIS UNLESS IRAN WAR EBBS
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• Taiwan, whose electrical grid relies on LNG for 40% of power generation, has an LNG emergency stockpile that will last around 11 days. Taiwan may be forced to ration power or reduce electricity to its industrial sector - POLITICO
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• Andrej Karpathy just explained the scariest thing happening in software right now.. someone poisoned a Python package that gets 97 million downloads a month.. and a simple pip install was enough to steal everything on your machine.. SSH keys.. AWS credentials.. crypto wallets.. database passwords.. git credentials.. shell history.. SSL private keys.. everything.. and here's the part that should terrify every developer alive.. the attack was only discovered because the attacker wrote sloppy code... 
• Drone-Attack Simulation Exposed A Grid Vulnerability. 
• NYT: it is not clear whether Israel was on board with the proposal. 
• Iran responds
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• *ANDURIL, PALANTIR MAKING GOLDEN DOME SHIELD'S SOFTWARE: WSJ. 
• Oil Tumbles, Stocks Surges As Israeli TV Reports US Seeks 'One Month Ceasefire'; Tehran Refuses Talks With 'Backstabbers'.         
• From 'Too Quiet' To Turmoil: Oil Up, Tech Wrecked, Bonds & Bitcoin Erase Monday's Gains. 

• @CNBC

• Oil drops more than 5% as Trump signals Iran talks despite Tehran denial.
• Wednesday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Asia-Pacific markets are set for higher open as Trump comments signal Iran war de-escalation.
• Stock futures rise on report that the U.S. has sent Iran a plan to end the war: Live updates.
• Amazon acquires 'approachable' humanoid maker Fauna Robotics.
• Google partners with Agile Robots, growing its AI robotics footprint.   

• @MarioNawful

• Trump visited Memphis to highlight a 43% drop in crime since his federal task force launched. 7,000 arrests, 1,100 illegal guns seized. Memphis had the highest violent crime rate in the country. Not anymore. (video)

• @ShadowofEzra

• The new Charlie Kirk show has a major meltdown after learning that Joe Kent is willing to testify in the Charlie Kirk assassination trial. They say the American people are betraying them. The show is demanding that no questions be asked about the assassination and that Israel not be blamed. “This is really personal.” “I am fed up with it.” (video)
• Psyop expert Chase Hughes explains how the CIA recruits influencers, describing a step by step process. He says it begins with overwhelming leverage, where someone is confronted with their browsing history and even private, compromising footage. Then comes the pivot. Praise, protection, and a lucrative offer, sometimes as much as $20,000 a month. Hughes argues the key is making the target feel like it was their choice all along. Even as they are quietly pressured to censor guests, avoid certain topics, or shape their content, they convince themselves it is justified and for the greater good. (video)

• @MJTruthUltra

• FLASHBACK: The day after Charlie Kirk was assassinated, both Hannity and John Solomon reported they were hearing from their sources in the Intel community there may be a Foreign Connection to the Assassination of Charlie Kirk. “There’s a group or two of interests in the Salt Lake City area… because of certain activities overseas, and Intel shared by a foreign friendly.” Joe Kent wasn’t the only one questioning if a foreign nation was involved. (video)

• @YaakovRenewed

• A Saudi X account reportedly posted a specific threat targeting the Motiva refinery in Port Arthur—just one hour before the explosion at the nearby Valero facility in the same city. What’s even more alarming? The account immediately deleted the post—along with all 4,739 previous tweets—right after the incident..

• @DissidentClint

• Putting SAVE America Act on reconciliation is an effort to kill it. Thune agrees it doesn’t work. But a group of GOP senators are trying to gaslight you by letting the budget rules kill SAVE America Act. The question is why? Stay on the bill. Pass it. Fight. No surrender.

• @nicksortor

• BREAKING: Senator Daines just said that the Senate has decided to DEFY Trump’s request to skip Easter recess to ensure the SAVE America Act gets to his desk: “This is going to continue after we get back after the Easter break. WHY ARE WE TAKING F*CKING BREAKS? @LeaderJohnThune. If the GOP doesn’t buckle down and get this on Trump’s desk, America is GONE. These people need to remember that a VAST MAJORITY of Americans who wholeheartedly support COMMON SENSE measures like this. Either get it passed, or Democrats will destroy ANY semblance of America as we knew it the moment they steal back power. It’s time for them to GROW A SPINE! (video)

• @BRICSinfo

• JUST IN: Iran's list of demands for ceasefire with the United States. • Compensation for wartime losses. • Formal control of the Strait of Hormuz. • No ballistic missile program limitations. • Guarantees against future military action. (video)

• @ABridgen

• A contrail and a chemtrail at the same time. Spot the difference. (video)

• @disclosetv

• JUST IN - Effective April 20, 2026, the U.S. Army is increasing the maximum enlistment age from 34 to 42 and eliminating waiver requirements for a single conviction of possession of marijuana.
• NEW - Pope Leo hosted the world’s most senior exorcists at the Vatican, who reportedly warned him of a terrifying global rise in "occultism, esotericism, and Satanism." — NYP. 

• @FreeBeacon

• NEW: New Jersey’s Democratic governor, Mikie Sherrill, who ran as a “moderate,” visited a local mosque on Friday whose cofounder was convicted of funneling money to Hamas. She met with a cleric who has called for a “new intifada” and faced deportation proceedings over his own alleged ties to the terror group, @chuckrossdc reports.

• @KobeissiLetter

• BREAKING: An Iranian source tells CNN that there has been "outreach" between the US and Iran and that Iran is willing to listen to "sustainable" proposals to end the war. “Iran is not asking for a meeting or direct talks with the US but is willing to listen if a plan for a sustainable deal comes within reach that would preserve the national interests of Iran,” the source said.
• IRAN ON POTENTIAL US GROUND INVASION: "For years, we have been awaiting the Americans' entry. We have just one message for the American soldiers: Come closer." 
• BREAKING: Saudi Arabia and the UAE are "inching toward" joining the US/Israeli war against Iran, per WSJ. Details include: 
• BREAKING: The Philippines has declared a state of national energy emergency due to a severe shortage of oil amid the Iran War. Details include: 
• BREAKING: Israel has struck a Russian-Iranian weapons supply line that the countries have used to move ammunition, drones, and other weaponry, per WSJ. 

• @rawsalerts

• #BREAKING: China is actively mapping the ocean floor as part of broader preparations for potential submarine warfare with the United States.

• @EndWokeness

• Senator Chris Murphy: "The people we care about most, the undocumented migrants". He actually said that. (video)

• @illuminatibot

• I FINALLY FOUND THE VIDEO OF BILL GATES ADMITTING IT. (video)

• @HighWireTalk

• The co-founder of Moderna just launched a new company. This time, the target is not your body. It is your food. Terrana Biosciences, backed by $50 million from Flagship Pioneering, the same firm behind Moderna, is developing RNA-based sprays designed to be applied directly to crops. The company describes it as "speaking the plant's language," using AI-driven RNA technology to reprogram how plants grow, resist disease, and respond to climate conditions, all without, they say, touching the plant's genome.

• @FFT1776

• WHOA! Rep. Luna flat out calls Thune a LIAR! Damn! John Thune thinks we’re stupid. He’s pushing a reconciliation fantasy for the SAVE Act like we don’t understand the Byrd Rule or that it can’t pass that way. And now Rep. Luna just said it out loud: “Thune is lying to America”! Stop gaslighting! You have the majority. Secure our elections NOW! (video)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +1.0% to +2.0% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 85.5 -5.5 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 48.25 -2.5 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 107.3 USD/Metric Tonne -.4%. 
• Crude Oil 88.06/bbl. -4.6% 
• Gold 4,621.1 USD/t oz. +4.2%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.74 -.08%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.48 +.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 100.1 +.4%
• US 10-Year Yield 4.35% -1.0 basis point.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.54% -2.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.3 -2.6%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +1.0%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.61%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.64%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.