Stocks Reversing Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Higher Long-Term Rates, Oil Shock Fears, Supply Chain Disruption Worries, Healthcare/Defense Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 55.0 -.6%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 72.7 +.5% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .24 -2.0 basis points
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .31 +2.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 61.1 -6.5%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 137.2 -1.7%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 77.0 -19.6% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.2 unch.

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 29.4 +.8 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 9.70 unch.

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 37.0 +.2 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(494 of 500 reporting) +13.7% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 324.58 +.27:  Growth Rate +16.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.0 +.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 14.77% +1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +28.1% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 524.09 +.71: Growth Rate +31.7% +.2 percentage point, P/E 28.8 +.3
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .14 +4.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 56.0 basis points (2s/10s) +1.75 basis points 
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 173.61 +1.0% 
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 47.4 euros/megawatt-hour -16.0% 
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 28.5% +2.2 percentage points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +2.1% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.14% +4.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 4.26 -8.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for April 29th FOMC meeting: 85.1% (-3.1 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for June 17th meeting: 59.3%(-3.9 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +722 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -26 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +81 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back
• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long