Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 65.0 +4.0%
- BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 71.1 -.3%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .27 -1.0 basis point
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .40 -6.0 basis points
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 77.5 +5.5%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 189.0 +3.2%
- Israel Sovereign CDS 75.4 +3.3%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .7 -.1
- US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 88.9 -.3
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 23.1 -.4
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -4.0 +.7
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 49.0 -1.7 points
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(11 of 500 reporting) +96.9% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 334.33 +.45: Growth Rate +20.4% +.2 percentage point, P/E 19.6 -.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.1% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +690.0% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 787.46 +.65: Growth Rate +97.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 17.7 -.3 (MU added, CRWD taken out)
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .15 +7.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 42.5 basis points (2s/10s) -2.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 164.0 -.4%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 55.2 euros/megawatt-hour +4.6%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 18.0% -1.7 percentage points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +2.0% -.3 percentage point
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.41% +8.0 basis points
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 5.11 +19.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for June 17th FOMC meeting: 79.2% (-9.0 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for July 29th meeting: 74.1%(-14.1 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -1,115 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -54 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +179 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my biotech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to Market Neutral
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