Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 58.8 +2.9%
- BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 72.4 +.8%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .24 -1.0 basis point
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .25 -4.0 basis points
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 65.9 +1.2%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 148.7 +2.5%
- Israel Sovereign CDS 79.2 -2.5%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .9 unch.
- US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 90.0 -2.2
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 27.8 -.3
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -9.0 +.2
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 54.2 +.5 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(5 of 500 reporting) +10.9% n/a
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 327.19 +.32: Growth Rate +17.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.4 -.2
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 14.81% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 527.19 +.47: Growth Rate +32.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 27.9 -.1
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .33 +6.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 50.75 basis points (2s/10s) -2.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 167.3 -1.6%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 54.7 euros/megawatt-hour +6.0%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 23.2% -1.5 percentage points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +2.7% unch.
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.25% +5.0 basis points
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 5.06 +10.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for April 29th FOMC meeting: 96.9% (-1.0 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for June 17th meeting: 84.4%(+4.9 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +525 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +37 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating -30 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long
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