Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 61.9 +1.0%
- BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 71.6 +1.3%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .28 +1.0 basis point
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .46 +4.0 basis points
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 73.5 -3.6%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 182.2 -3.3%
- Israel Sovereign CDS 73.0 -7.5%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .8 unch.
- US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 89.2 +1.8
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 23.5 -.4
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -4.7 +.5
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 50.7 -.3 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(11 of 500 reporting) +96.9% -6.7 percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 333.88 +.27: Growth Rate +20.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 19.7 unch.
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.1% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +690.0% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 786.81 +n/a: Growth Rate +97.8% +n/a percentage point, P/E 18.0 -n/a (MU added, CRWD taken out)
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .08 -8.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 44.5 basis points (2s/10s) -1.5 basis points
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 164.7 +1.2%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 52.8 euros/megawatt-hour -2.3%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 19.7% +1.2 percentage points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +2.0% -.3 percentage point
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.32% -4.0 basis points
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 4.89 -10.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for June 17th FOMC meeting: 88.2% (+5.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for July 29th meeting: 88.2%(+10.6 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -10 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -25 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +182 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/consumer discretionary/biotech sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
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