Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 56.4 +4.7%
- BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 74.0 -.6%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .25 unch.
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .15 unch.
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 61.7 +3.8%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 138.3 +3.0%
- Israel Sovereign CDS 80.1 -3.3%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.4 -.3
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 39.3 +.3 point
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 25.9 -.4 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 37.3 -.8 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(491 of 500 reporting) +13.6% +.5 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 322.79 +.18: Growth Rate +16.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.2 -.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 14.75% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +28.1% +.1 percentage point
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 514.79 +.52: Growth Rate +29.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 29.2 +.3
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .49 +15.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 54.5 basis points (2s/10s) -2.5 basis points
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 169.0 -1.8%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 50.7 euros/megawatt-hour +4.0%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 27.6% -2.2 percentage points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +3.0% unch.
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.14% +5.0 basis points
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 4.25 +21.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for April 29th FOMC meeting: 87.3% (-.9 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for June 17th meeting: 67.7%(+.9 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +2,400 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +37 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +80 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Lower: On losses in my transport/biotech/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and emerging market shorts
- Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long
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