Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 62.7 -.1%
- BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 71.1 -1.1%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .27 unch.
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .42 +3.0 basis points
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 76.3 +1.2%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 189.4 +.2%
- Israel Sovereign CDS 78.9 -1.2%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .8 -.1
- US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 87.4 +.6
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 23.9 +.9
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -5.2 +3.7
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 51.0 -1.0 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 500 reporting) +103.6% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 333.61 +.18: Growth Rate +20.1% unch., P/E 19.7 -.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.1% +1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +690.0% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 530.45 +n/a: Growth Rate +33.3% +n/a percentage point, P/E 27.2 -n/a
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .16 +4.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 46.0 basis points (2s/10s) -4.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 162.8 +.1%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 54.0 euros/megawatt-hour -4.7%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 18.5% unch.
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +2.0% -.3 percentage point
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.38% +3.0 basis points
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 5.14 +19.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for June 17th FOMC meeting: 82.8% (-8.9 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for July 29th meeting: 77.6%(-10.5 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +1,750 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +92 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +405 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
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