Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 60.8 +.5%
- BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 71.7 -.1%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .27 +3.0 basis points
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .26 +1.0 basis point
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 68.2 +3.5%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 150.7 +.4%
- Israel Sovereign CDS 78.7 -1.3%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.0 +.1
- US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 91.7 +1.7
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 29.2 +1.4
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -9.0 unch.
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 53.3 -.9 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 500 reporting) +112.1% +101.2 percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 328.0 +.81: Growth Rate +18.1% +.3 percentage point, P/E 20.1 -.3
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 14.81% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 528.83 +1.64: Growth Rate +32.9% +.4 percentage point, P/E 27.4 -.5
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .23 -10.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 43.75 basis points (2s/10s) -7.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 163.0 -2.6%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 61.9 euros/megawatt-hour +13.2%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 19.9% -3.3 percentage points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +2.3% -.4 percentage point
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.28% +2.0 basis points
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 5.19 +13.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for June 17th FOMC meeting: 95.7% (+7.9 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for July 29th meeting: 92.1%(+14.7 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -1,027 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -100 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating -63 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 25% net long
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