Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 67.2 -.3%
- BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 70.3 +2.1%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .29 +2.0 basis points
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .49 +4.0 basis points
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 78.0 -.3%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 205.4 +4.0%
- Israel Sovereign CDS 81.2 +.3%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .7 unch.
- US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 87.3 -.9
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 19.6 -2.5
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 1.0 +4.9
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 47.8 +.6
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(12 of 500 reporting) +96.5% -.4 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 335.39 +1.06: Growth Rate +20.8% +.4 percentage point, P/E 19.0 -.6
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.1% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +690.0% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 790.41 +2.95: Growth Rate +98.7% +.8 percentage point, P/E 16.9 -.8
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .02 -25.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 51.25 basis points (2s/10s) unch.
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 167.0 +1.3%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 54.8 euros/megawatt-hour +1.2%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 19.1% +1.3 percentage points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +2.0% -.3 percentage point
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.34% -9.0 basis points
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 5.31 +9.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for June 17th FOMC meeting: 93.9% (+1.7 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for July 29th meeting: 90.0%(-.2 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -780 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -99 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +43 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my biotech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: Market Neutral
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